- Yesterday's candlestick (Apr 29) was a bear bar closing in its lower half with a small tail below.
- In our previous report, we said traders will see if the bears can create a follow-through bear bar. If they do, it could lead to a retest and breakout attempt below the April 22 low.
- The bears got a follow-through bear bar on Tuesday.
- They want a retest of the recent leg low (Apr 22) followed by a strong breakout and a measured move based on the height of the 5-month trading range.
- If there is a breakout below the April 22 low, the bears must create strong follow-through selling to increase the odds of a successful breakout.
- The bulls want the current move to form a higher low (vs Apr 22) and a double bottom (Apr 22).
- If the market trades below the April 22 low, they want a failed breakout and a reversal from a lower low major trend reversal.
- As strong as the current selling is, the bulls see it as a sell vacuum and a bear leg within the trading range.
- They hope the bottom of the trading range will act as support.
- They must create strong bull bars to show they are back in control.
- The selloff from April 2 to April 22 was strong enough for traders to expect at least a small sideways to down to retest the April 22 low. It is currently underway.
- Traders will see the strength of the move. If strong, traders may expect a breakout attempt below the April 22 low. So far, the move appears strong.
- The market formed another bear bar in the night market testing near the April 22 low (just 25 points away from the low).
- For tomorrow (30/4/25), traders will see if the bears can create a retest and breakout attempt below the April 22 low. If there is a breakout, traders will see if there will be strong follow-through selling.
- Or will Wednesday's candlestick close with a long tail below instead? If this is the case, it will indicate some profit-taking around the trading range low (3850 area).
- The market remains in a large trading range (4500 - 3850). Traders may Buy Low and Sell High within the trading range.
- That means buying in the lower third of the trading range, and selling in the upper third until there is a strong breakout from either direction with follow-through buying/selling.
- Breakout from trading ranges can fail and odds slightly favor the trading range to continue.
Andrew
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.