FCPO declined by nearly 8% on last Friday and closed at 6276 as profit taking took place, but posted 2nd weekly gains after touched on historical high at 7108. So, what’s make palm oil now the costlier edible oil among the 4 major edible oils? Global commodities rallied following EU bans certain Russian banks from SWIFT bank payment system which aimed to stuttering the Russia economy and introduces further restrictions. The war expected to disrupt the processing and export of Ukraine oilseeds crops for at least 1 month and curb flow of sunflower seed to the European Union. 2. India’s reserve is facing a depletion in stocks levels with a lack of shipments of sunflower oil from the Black Sea Region. India requested Indonesia temporary reduce their biodiesel blending rules and increase the exports to mitigate disrupted supplies of sunflower oil. 3. Rising concerns on adequate palm supply levels for post-Ramadan restocking. While expectations of higher productions in coming months as high output cycle kicks in and government also announced new migrant workers to work in plantation sector capped gains. 4. Soybean oil prices closed lower as profit taking and rainfall in Brazil and Argentina eased dry weather conditions.
Technical View: 1. Shooting star formed at resistance level of 7100, which indicates market losing uptrend momentum and also a reversal signal 2. Stochastic K% line is crossing down in both weekly and daily chart which indicates downtrend signal
We expect market may have short term retracement with immediate support level at 5825
Suggestion Trade: Short if stay below 6200 Target Stop Loss (resistance level) 6365 Target Profit level (support level) TP1 6035 TP2 5705 Long if stay above 6800 Target Stop Loss (support level) 6635 Target Profit level (resistance level) TP1 6965 TP2 7295
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