- Monday’s candlestick (19 May) was a bull bar closing in its upper half.
- In our last report, we said traders would see if the bears could get another follow-through bear bar, or if the market would retest the May 14 high, even if it only forms a lower high.
- The market gapped up at the open and traded up for the day, testing near the 20-day EMA.
- The bears want a reversal from a double top bear flag (April 25 and May 14).
- They see the current move as a retest of the May 14 high and want it to form a lower high.
- They want the 20-day EMA to act as resistance, followed by another strong leg down to retest the May 8 low.
- If the market trades higher, they want the 14 May high to act as resistance.
- The bulls want a reversal from a higher low major trend reversal (?).
- They want a large second leg sideways to up.
- They must create a strong retest of the May 14 high and a strong breakout with sustained follow-through buying.
- The bulls must create strong bull bars trading far above the 20-day EMA to increase the odds of a reversal.
- Exports for the first 15 days seem decent, +10 to 15%
- Production is up marginally so far.
- Refineries' appetite to buy in recent days seems good.
- For tomorrow (Tuesday, 20 May), traders will see if the bulls can create a follow-through bull bar closing above the 20-day EMA. So far in the night market, the candlestick is a follow-through bull bar trading above the 20-day EMA.
- Or will the market trade slightly higher, but stall below the May 14 high and close below the 20-day EMA again?
- The weekly candlestick closing near its low slightly favours the market to trade at least a little lower sometime this week.
Andrew
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.