Good Day and I hope you are well.
comment: Neutral week. Bulls retested the ath and could not print a new one and bears failed at 23k. Do not make these range bound markets harder than they are. You have no edge on predicting where the breakout will happen. So trade the range and if the breakout happens, wait for confirmation and join along.
current market cycle: Bull trend until consecutive daily closes below 23000 (changed upwards to 23k since we are staying above it now too long)
key levels: 22000 - 24000
bull case: As long as bulls keep it above the bull trend line and inside the channel, they are fine. 23k is the big support to hold for them. If it fails, we test 22500. Only question right now is, how high are the odds of another bull leg up to 24k or higher? I have no idea and every time I feel that way, I am neutral. The bull channel is still the dominant feature so bulls remain in control but they have to close green on Monday or the channel is most likely broken. Targets above are 24k and maybe 24500.
Invalidation is below 23000.
bear case: Double top is their only legit argument for now until we see consecutive daily closes below 23k. The Thu/Fr bear bars do not look all that bearish, so selling below 23200 is bad no matter how you look at it. If anything I’d look for longs 23126 for 23400+. I won’t make stuff up for bears. Once we close below 23k. Bears next target is previous support at 22500 and below that would be the gap close to 22270ish.
Invalidation is above 23500.
short term: Neutral/leaning very slightly bullish since we are near big support. If bulls come around, I want to be long for 23400+. Shorts only closer to 23746 (keep in mind we had contract switch) or on a strong move below 23k.
medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Germany takes on huge amount of new debt. Dax is rallying hard and broke above multi-year bull trends. This buying is as real as it gets, as unlikely as it is. Market is as expensive as it was during the .com bubble but here we are and marking is pointing up. Clear bull channel and until it’s broken, I can not pound my chest and scream for lower prices. Price is truth. Is the selling around 23000 strong enough that we could form a top? Yes. We have wild 1000 point swings in both directions. Look at the weekly chart. Last time we had this volatility was 2024-07 and volume then was still much lower. We are seeing a shift from US equities to European ones and until market closes consecutive daily bars below 22000, we can’t expecting anything but sideways to up movement.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing big, just new targets
comment: Neutral week. Bulls retested the ath and could not print a new one and bears failed at 23k. Do not make these range bound markets harder than they are. You have no edge on predicting where the breakout will happen. So trade the range and if the breakout happens, wait for confirmation and join along.
current market cycle: Bull trend until consecutive daily closes below 23000 (changed upwards to 23k since we are staying above it now too long)
key levels: 22000 - 24000
bull case: As long as bulls keep it above the bull trend line and inside the channel, they are fine. 23k is the big support to hold for them. If it fails, we test 22500. Only question right now is, how high are the odds of another bull leg up to 24k or higher? I have no idea and every time I feel that way, I am neutral. The bull channel is still the dominant feature so bulls remain in control but they have to close green on Monday or the channel is most likely broken. Targets above are 24k and maybe 24500.
Invalidation is below 23000.
bear case: Double top is their only legit argument for now until we see consecutive daily closes below 23k. The Thu/Fr bear bars do not look all that bearish, so selling below 23200 is bad no matter how you look at it. If anything I’d look for longs 23126 for 23400+. I won’t make stuff up for bears. Once we close below 23k. Bears next target is previous support at 22500 and below that would be the gap close to 22270ish.
Invalidation is above 23500.
short term: Neutral/leaning very slightly bullish since we are near big support. If bulls come around, I want to be long for 23400+. Shorts only closer to 23746 (keep in mind we had contract switch) or on a strong move below 23k.
medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Germany takes on huge amount of new debt. Dax is rallying hard and broke above multi-year bull trends. This buying is as real as it gets, as unlikely as it is. Market is as expensive as it was during the .com bubble but here we are and marking is pointing up. Clear bull channel and until it’s broken, I can not pound my chest and scream for lower prices. Price is truth. Is the selling around 23000 strong enough that we could form a top? Yes. We have wild 1000 point swings in both directions. Look at the weekly chart. Last time we had this volatility was 2024-07 and volume then was still much lower. We are seeing a shift from US equities to European ones and until market closes consecutive daily bars below 22000, we can’t expecting anything but sideways to up movement.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing big, just new targets
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.