Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Weekly outlook gave clear invalidation points and bulls broke above. We have a clear measuring gap down to 22800 now and until that is closed, it’s bullish all the way to new ath and maybe 24k.
current market cycle: trading range but we could see the resumption of the bull trend tomorrow
key levels: 22260 - 24000
bull case: Bulls defended the breakout and had a perfect retest with last weeks close. Every pullback now should stay above 23000 and then we are free to test 23500 and maybe even 24000. Bulls are in full control again.
Invalidation is below 23000.
bear case: Bears failed in breaking below the breakout of 22800ish and they had to give up after we printed 4 consecutive 1h bars with big tails below. 1h 20ema is support and until bears get consecutive closes below it again, they don’t have much. I think most bears will wait how high this one goes and start looking for shorts above 23500.
Invalidation is above 23600.
short term: Bullish for 23500 and maybe 24000. Bearish only below 22900.
medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Germany takes on huge amount of new debt. Dax is rallying hard and broke above multi-year bull trends. This buying is as real as it gets, as unlikely as it is. Market is as expensive as it was during the .com bubble but here we are and marking is pointing up. Clear bull channel and until it’s broken, I can not pound my chest and scream for lower prices. Price is truth. Is the selling around 23000 strong enough that we could form a top? Yes. We have wild 1000 point swings in both directions. Look at the weekly chart. Last time we had this volatility was 2024-07 and volume then was still much lower. We are seeing a shift from US equities to European ones and until market closes consecutive daily bars below 22000, we can’t expecting anything but sideways to up movement.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Bullish above invalidation point yesterday given. Hope you made some.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.