Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: When in doubt, zoom out. Market is leaving gaps below and daily bar closed at the high (at least for futures). Bulls will likely get another spike above 24430 to run the stops but I don’t know if they can get more. Buying above 24200 is there but lackluster but that’s still enough for the bulls because bears are not doing anything, so do not look for shorts. I think we are days away from the top but it’s a rough guess.
current market cycle: broad bull channel
key levels: 23700 - 24500
bull case: Bulls remain in control. There are making higher highs and higher lows. That’s all you need to understand about the current price action. Do not sell this unless you are really really good at reversals. The easy money is buying pullbacks. Do that until we make lower lows. Next targets are 24430 and then 24500.
Invalidation is below 24130.
bear case: Even if bears get below 24130, we have another trend line around 24000 and for now we can not expect bears to just appear. They will likely need an event or market has to spend more time building a credible top before we can reverse.
Invalidation is above 24550.
short term: Neutral. Bulls remain in full control but buying up here is just too easy to get trapped and I will rather wait. 24500 is the next obvious target. I think it’s more likely we are in a trading range 23700 -24500 than getting another strong move above 24500.
medium-long term from 2025-05-25: My rough guess from early May was down over the summer and up into year end. POTUS certainly helped with the 50% tariffs. I need to see market reaction next week and if there is no 180° reversal until Friday, they will become reality the week after and dax should do 20-30% down over the next months. Markets were not positioned for any risk what so ever. Now we got the atomic trade bomb.
trade of the day: Long overnight or EU session for 24400. The short from 24371 was not obvious nor easy to take. Also went much further than I expected it to go. Buying the double bottom 24160 was the second best trade. Market found not acceptance below the 1h 20ema and it was also the Globex low.
comment: When in doubt, zoom out. Market is leaving gaps below and daily bar closed at the high (at least for futures). Bulls will likely get another spike above 24430 to run the stops but I don’t know if they can get more. Buying above 24200 is there but lackluster but that’s still enough for the bulls because bears are not doing anything, so do not look for shorts. I think we are days away from the top but it’s a rough guess.
current market cycle: broad bull channel
key levels: 23700 - 24500
bull case: Bulls remain in control. There are making higher highs and higher lows. That’s all you need to understand about the current price action. Do not sell this unless you are really really good at reversals. The easy money is buying pullbacks. Do that until we make lower lows. Next targets are 24430 and then 24500.
Invalidation is below 24130.
bear case: Even if bears get below 24130, we have another trend line around 24000 and for now we can not expect bears to just appear. They will likely need an event or market has to spend more time building a credible top before we can reverse.
Invalidation is above 24550.
short term: Neutral. Bulls remain in full control but buying up here is just too easy to get trapped and I will rather wait. 24500 is the next obvious target. I think it’s more likely we are in a trading range 23700 -24500 than getting another strong move above 24500.
medium-long term from 2025-05-25: My rough guess from early May was down over the summer and up into year end. POTUS certainly helped with the 50% tariffs. I need to see market reaction next week and if there is no 180° reversal until Friday, they will become reality the week after and dax should do 20-30% down over the next months. Markets were not positioned for any risk what so ever. Now we got the atomic trade bomb.
trade of the day: Long overnight or EU session for 24400. The short from 24371 was not obvious nor easy to take. Also went much further than I expected it to go. Buying the double bottom 24160 was the second best trade. Market found not acceptance below the 1h 20ema and it was also the Globex low.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.