Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Wild week where market reversed the huge selling on Friday and the daily bear bar looks more bullish than bearish. 23k is the battleground right now. If bears keep it a lower high, we could test further down but if they don’t, bulls could try and go for 24k. News certainly help in fueling this right now.
current market cycle: Bull trend until consecutive daily closes below 22000
key levels: 22000 - 24000
bull case: Above 23500 we could go for 24000 next week. This did not change since market went nowhere last week. Bulls defended the gap to 22000 and that is as bullish as it get’s. Plan for bulls is clear, keep market above the adjusted bull trend line around 22500 and make new ath above 23500, likely going for 24000. The channel looks still good, so trade it like it’s valid.
Invalidation is below 22400 because it would invalidate the channel but only a print below 22000 would change the character of this market.
bear case: Bears have shown decent selling pressure for 1200 points but that does not matter if they can not get below 22000 again. I do think it’s not unlikely that the bears have the argument for a head & shoulders, if 23000 proves to be bigger resistance now. I’d still favor the bulls for now but if we fail below 23200 for the next 3-6 days, the bull trend line would be broken and market could test lower, if overall sentiment shifts again after the expected short squeeze. Yes, I do keep in mind that German stocks are likely profiting big time from the spending spree Germany will likely go on but I am a price action daytrader. I read the chart and develop a thesis would could happen and if it does I put on risk. This front-running could very well reverse. Bears only have their confirmation below 22000 and for now market has tested 22147 - 22300 enough that bears gave up.
Invalidation is above 23500.
short term: Neutral around 22800/23200. Above 23200 we will retest 23500 and above that we likely try for 24000. 22400-22800 is the dead zone and only below 21900 bears have good reasons for lower prices. For now I can’t see any reason why this would fall below 22000 next week.
medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Germany takes on huge amount of new debt. Dax is rallying hard and broke above multi-year bull trends. This buying is as real as it gets, as unlikely as it is. Market is as expensive as it was during the .com bubble but here we are and marking is pointing up. Clear bull channel and until it’s broken, I can not pound my chest and scream for lower prices. Price is truth. Is the selling around 23000 strong enough that we could form a top? Yes. We have wild 1000 point swings in both directions. Look at the weekly chart. Last time we had this volatility was 2024-07 and volume then was still much lower. We are seeing a shift from US equities to European ones and until market closes consecutive daily bars below 22000, we can’t expecting anything but sideways to up movement.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing
comment: Wild week where market reversed the huge selling on Friday and the daily bear bar looks more bullish than bearish. 23k is the battleground right now. If bears keep it a lower high, we could test further down but if they don’t, bulls could try and go for 24k. News certainly help in fueling this right now.
current market cycle: Bull trend until consecutive daily closes below 22000
key levels: 22000 - 24000
bull case: Above 23500 we could go for 24000 next week. This did not change since market went nowhere last week. Bulls defended the gap to 22000 and that is as bullish as it get’s. Plan for bulls is clear, keep market above the adjusted bull trend line around 22500 and make new ath above 23500, likely going for 24000. The channel looks still good, so trade it like it’s valid.
Invalidation is below 22400 because it would invalidate the channel but only a print below 22000 would change the character of this market.
bear case: Bears have shown decent selling pressure for 1200 points but that does not matter if they can not get below 22000 again. I do think it’s not unlikely that the bears have the argument for a head & shoulders, if 23000 proves to be bigger resistance now. I’d still favor the bulls for now but if we fail below 23200 for the next 3-6 days, the bull trend line would be broken and market could test lower, if overall sentiment shifts again after the expected short squeeze. Yes, I do keep in mind that German stocks are likely profiting big time from the spending spree Germany will likely go on but I am a price action daytrader. I read the chart and develop a thesis would could happen and if it does I put on risk. This front-running could very well reverse. Bears only have their confirmation below 22000 and for now market has tested 22147 - 22300 enough that bears gave up.
Invalidation is above 23500.
short term: Neutral around 22800/23200. Above 23200 we will retest 23500 and above that we likely try for 24000. 22400-22800 is the dead zone and only below 21900 bears have good reasons for lower prices. For now I can’t see any reason why this would fall below 22000 next week.
medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Germany takes on huge amount of new debt. Dax is rallying hard and broke above multi-year bull trends. This buying is as real as it gets, as unlikely as it is. Market is as expensive as it was during the .com bubble but here we are and marking is pointing up. Clear bull channel and until it’s broken, I can not pound my chest and scream for lower prices. Price is truth. Is the selling around 23000 strong enough that we could form a top? Yes. We have wild 1000 point swings in both directions. Look at the weekly chart. Last time we had this volatility was 2024-07 and volume then was still much lower. We are seeing a shift from US equities to European ones and until market closes consecutive daily bars below 22000, we can’t expecting anything but sideways to up movement.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.