Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bears are clearly in control and we have two bear trend lines above us. One around 22600 and the bigger one around 23000. Bulls need to claim 22900 and bears obviously want 22k. Absolutely no idea what we get first. Buying volume increased big time at previous low around 22300 but overall market sentiment has to reverse. I can not see dax rallying 2%+ if us indexes stay at the lows. 22400 is the neutral price, so don’t trade it.
current market cycle: trading range - bull trend clearly broken now
key levels: 22000 - 24000
bull case: Bulls need to get back above 22800 if they want further upside. For now they have buy new lows and scalp. For bulls to reverse this, they would need to print a clear higher low and trapping late bears. Market can not rally, if we make lower lows the whole time. Not much for bulls here and it could be because they expect 22k to be hit and want to buy that.
Invalidation is below 21900.
bear case: Bears want to finally print 22000 again. last time we did was early February. Problem for them is, we are at huge previous support. Should you bet that the breakout will happen? Never. Wait for it to happen and join along and wait for a bounce to sell higher. Any bounce has to stay below 22600 and then we can continue down. Selling below 22400 is bad, no matter what. Bears remain in control until the current bear channel is broken.
Invalidation is above 23600.
short term: Neutral around 22400. Bearish above 22500 if we stall too much and bears come around again. If bulls stay above 22300/22400 and print a lower high, I will join them if us markets do the same. I expect a huge bounce soon.
medium-long term from 2024-02-26: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. Daily close below 22000 is needed to turn this neutral and end the bull trend-.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying during the Globex session was fun and then selling above 22800 again, since it was resistance from yesterday. Where should you have sold? Market hit 22835 and then only printed lower highs for 7 15m bars. That was certainly strong enough to cover longs.
comment: Bears are clearly in control and we have two bear trend lines above us. One around 22600 and the bigger one around 23000. Bulls need to claim 22900 and bears obviously want 22k. Absolutely no idea what we get first. Buying volume increased big time at previous low around 22300 but overall market sentiment has to reverse. I can not see dax rallying 2%+ if us indexes stay at the lows. 22400 is the neutral price, so don’t trade it.
current market cycle: trading range - bull trend clearly broken now
key levels: 22000 - 24000
bull case: Bulls need to get back above 22800 if they want further upside. For now they have buy new lows and scalp. For bulls to reverse this, they would need to print a clear higher low and trapping late bears. Market can not rally, if we make lower lows the whole time. Not much for bulls here and it could be because they expect 22k to be hit and want to buy that.
Invalidation is below 21900.
bear case: Bears want to finally print 22000 again. last time we did was early February. Problem for them is, we are at huge previous support. Should you bet that the breakout will happen? Never. Wait for it to happen and join along and wait for a bounce to sell higher. Any bounce has to stay below 22600 and then we can continue down. Selling below 22400 is bad, no matter what. Bears remain in control until the current bear channel is broken.
Invalidation is above 23600.
short term: Neutral around 22400. Bearish above 22500 if we stall too much and bears come around again. If bulls stay above 22300/22400 and print a lower high, I will join them if us markets do the same. I expect a huge bounce soon.
medium-long term from 2024-02-26: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. Daily close below 22000 is needed to turn this neutral and end the bull trend-.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying during the Globex session was fun and then selling above 22800 again, since it was resistance from yesterday. Where should you have sold? Market hit 22835 and then only printed lower highs for 7 15m bars. That was certainly strong enough to cover longs.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.