Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: We oscillate around 23300 and not moving much. It’s a bull flag but one that has been going on for too long now. The longer we move sideways, the more neutral the market is. Clear invalidation prices for both sides. Breakout above the bull flag and 23400 could mean another try at 500 and if they crack that, 24k comes in play. Bears need strong closes below 23000 and then we could accelerate down again.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 23000 - 24000
bull case: Bulls have two big open gaps and if they defend them, they can continue to try and get a new ath above 23505 and maybe 24000 if momentum is there. On the daily chart this looks bullish and nothing else but on the 1h chart it get’s more neutral with every 1h bar. Not much else to write in favor of the bulls tbh. Either they break above the bull flag tomorrow or they better lock in those profits.
Invalidation is below 23000.
bear case: Bears have many arguments on their side but until we see prices below 23000, they are mostly hopes and dreams. Even the most bullish news one could make up about the big spending bill, could not get us a new ath, which means big bois are reducing their positions above 23300 (at least for now). Bears also see the big double top on the daily chart and if we break below 23000, it could accelerate down big time. Bulls have also tried 4 times on the 1h chart to get above 23300/23400 and failed each time. Market has turned mostly neutral and bears have a chance of closing the week below 23000.
Invalidation is above 23550.
short term: Neutral. 23300 is the fair price. Set alerts for the given invalidation prices and see if we can get a big trend before end of week. Chop is more likely though.
medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Germany takes on huge amount of new debt. Dax is rallying hard and broke above multi-year bull trends. This buying is as real as it gets, as unlikely as it is. Market is as expensive as it was during the .com bubble but here we are and marking is pointing up. Clear bull channel and until it’s broken, I can not pound my chest and scream for lower prices. Price is truth. Is the selling around 23000 strong enough that we could form a top? Yes. We have wild 1000 point swings in both directions. Look at the weekly chart. Last time we had this volatility was 2024-07 and volume then was still much lower. We are seeing a shift from US equities to European ones and until market closes consecutive daily bars below 22000, we can’t expecting anything but sideways to up movement.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying below 23200, which was support yesterday and today it was good for 150+ again.
comment: We oscillate around 23300 and not moving much. It’s a bull flag but one that has been going on for too long now. The longer we move sideways, the more neutral the market is. Clear invalidation prices for both sides. Breakout above the bull flag and 23400 could mean another try at 500 and if they crack that, 24k comes in play. Bears need strong closes below 23000 and then we could accelerate down again.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 23000 - 24000
bull case: Bulls have two big open gaps and if they defend them, they can continue to try and get a new ath above 23505 and maybe 24000 if momentum is there. On the daily chart this looks bullish and nothing else but on the 1h chart it get’s more neutral with every 1h bar. Not much else to write in favor of the bulls tbh. Either they break above the bull flag tomorrow or they better lock in those profits.
Invalidation is below 23000.
bear case: Bears have many arguments on their side but until we see prices below 23000, they are mostly hopes and dreams. Even the most bullish news one could make up about the big spending bill, could not get us a new ath, which means big bois are reducing their positions above 23300 (at least for now). Bears also see the big double top on the daily chart and if we break below 23000, it could accelerate down big time. Bulls have also tried 4 times on the 1h chart to get above 23300/23400 and failed each time. Market has turned mostly neutral and bears have a chance of closing the week below 23000.
Invalidation is above 23550.
short term: Neutral. 23300 is the fair price. Set alerts for the given invalidation prices and see if we can get a big trend before end of week. Chop is more likely though.
medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Germany takes on huge amount of new debt. Dax is rallying hard and broke above multi-year bull trends. This buying is as real as it gets, as unlikely as it is. Market is as expensive as it was during the .com bubble but here we are and marking is pointing up. Clear bull channel and until it’s broken, I can not pound my chest and scream for lower prices. Price is truth. Is the selling around 23000 strong enough that we could form a top? Yes. We have wild 1000 point swings in both directions. Look at the weekly chart. Last time we had this volatility was 2024-07 and volume then was still much lower. We are seeing a shift from US equities to European ones and until market closes consecutive daily bars below 22000, we can’t expecting anything but sideways to up movement.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying below 23200, which was support yesterday and today it was good for 150+ again.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.