2024-07-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Indexes pulled back as expected and laid out in my weekly post yesterday. Although a bit stronger and faster than I expected. Dax for example already reached it’s 50% pullback to the tick and bears want this to be the high and reverse hard from here.
Commodities - Gold is also trying to find a bottom after the big rejection. Doji on the day so no deeper analysis needed. Set alarms when market breaks above or below today’s range.
Oil bears tried the follow through selling but bulls actually closed the day above the minor bear trend line support again. So bears are not as strong as they could be. Still lower lows and lower highs.
Bitcoin - BTFD in full force, Doji on the daily. No deeper analysis, bulls are in control, please read my weekly post.
dax futures
comment: 18600 is my line in the sand for bears. If they keep it below, odds are good, that we are in a bigger down move. If bulls continue up, it’s a triangle on the daily chart and we can expect more sideways movement.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18300 - 18700
bull case: Good bounce by the bulls today and they closed at the highs. They expect follow through buying tomorrow and if they can a 1h close above 18600, many bears will give up on a new bear trend and stronger selling. Market did not have a candle close below the 15m 20ema today. Find those ema early in the day and grind them up or down.
Invalidation is below 18500.
bear case: Bears stopped the market at the absolute last point to keep the sell off thesis alive. 50% pb was hit to the tick. They need a strong overnight reversal or early in EU session. So probably more upside above 18620 and down again below 18500.
Invalidation is above 18620ish.
short term: Full bear mode to hell. Shorter shorty term is neutral as stated above. Bullish scalping above 18620 and full bear below 18500 again.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. —unchanged
trade of the day: Long bar 32. Strong breakout of prev range and market never looked back.
overall market comment
Indexes pulled back as expected and laid out in my weekly post yesterday. Although a bit stronger and faster than I expected. Dax for example already reached it’s 50% pullback to the tick and bears want this to be the high and reverse hard from here.
Commodities - Gold is also trying to find a bottom after the big rejection. Doji on the day so no deeper analysis needed. Set alarms when market breaks above or below today’s range.
Oil bears tried the follow through selling but bulls actually closed the day above the minor bear trend line support again. So bears are not as strong as they could be. Still lower lows and lower highs.
Bitcoin - BTFD in full force, Doji on the daily. No deeper analysis, bulls are in control, please read my weekly post.
dax futures
comment: 18600 is my line in the sand for bears. If they keep it below, odds are good, that we are in a bigger down move. If bulls continue up, it’s a triangle on the daily chart and we can expect more sideways movement.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18300 - 18700
bull case: Good bounce by the bulls today and they closed at the highs. They expect follow through buying tomorrow and if they can a 1h close above 18600, many bears will give up on a new bear trend and stronger selling. Market did not have a candle close below the 15m 20ema today. Find those ema early in the day and grind them up or down.
Invalidation is below 18500.
bear case: Bears stopped the market at the absolute last point to keep the sell off thesis alive. 50% pb was hit to the tick. They need a strong overnight reversal or early in EU session. So probably more upside above 18620 and down again below 18500.
Invalidation is above 18620ish.
short term: Full bear mode to hell. Shorter shorty term is neutral as stated above. Bullish scalping above 18620 and full bear below 18500 again.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. —unchanged
trade of the day: Long bar 32. Strong breakout of prev range and market never looked back.
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