2024-09-09 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Green across the board. On the daily charts it’s mostly a small to normal bullish inside bar, so nothing to get excited about yet for the bulls. Tomorrow will be very important for the bears. If they fail to test the lows again or stop the pullback, many bears could give up and let the bulls test the highs again. In my weekly outlook I wrote that the 4h ema is currently the most important one and almost all markets respected it and closed below. Will look for early weakness and want to short for retest of the Friday lows.
dax futures
comment: Market closed below the 4h ema so bears remain in control. I think the odds favor the bears for a retest of the lows and some more sideways movement before we get another impulse. On the 15m chart there is a clear bull channel which is good to trade for now. Will probably see a contraction in Globex and early EU session before a breakout above or below.
current market cycle: trading range - below 18260 we know we are in a bear trend inside the bigger trading range.
key levels: 18260 - 18600
bull case: Bulls need a 1h close above the 4h ema and the next target above is 18638 which is Friday’s high. If they get above it, most bears will give up on the bear trend pattern and we likely see acceleration upwards. Bulls need to defend the current bull channel where the lower trend line is currently around 18440.
Invalidation is below 18440.
bear case: Bears currently have 2 decent bear gaps on the daily chart. If they can keep the market below the 4h ema, that would help their case big time. Bear targets are 18400 and then 18300.
Invalidation is above 18550 (daily 20ema).
short term: Bears are still in control and the odds favor a second leg down. The pullback need to stay below 18550ish, give or take.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this.
current swing trade: Swing short since 18454 with SL 18600/18650. Will add higher if necessary.
trade of the day: Buying 18400 was decent today. Bulls defended that price and market was two sided enough for a couple of scalps.
tl;dr
Indexes - Green across the board. On the daily charts it’s mostly a small to normal bullish inside bar, so nothing to get excited about yet for the bulls. Tomorrow will be very important for the bears. If they fail to test the lows again or stop the pullback, many bears could give up and let the bulls test the highs again. In my weekly outlook I wrote that the 4h ema is currently the most important one and almost all markets respected it and closed below. Will look for early weakness and want to short for retest of the Friday lows.
dax futures
comment: Market closed below the 4h ema so bears remain in control. I think the odds favor the bears for a retest of the lows and some more sideways movement before we get another impulse. On the 15m chart there is a clear bull channel which is good to trade for now. Will probably see a contraction in Globex and early EU session before a breakout above or below.
current market cycle: trading range - below 18260 we know we are in a bear trend inside the bigger trading range.
key levels: 18260 - 18600
bull case: Bulls need a 1h close above the 4h ema and the next target above is 18638 which is Friday’s high. If they get above it, most bears will give up on the bear trend pattern and we likely see acceleration upwards. Bulls need to defend the current bull channel where the lower trend line is currently around 18440.
Invalidation is below 18440.
bear case: Bears currently have 2 decent bear gaps on the daily chart. If they can keep the market below the 4h ema, that would help their case big time. Bear targets are 18400 and then 18300.
Invalidation is above 18550 (daily 20ema).
short term: Bears are still in control and the odds favor a second leg down. The pullback need to stay below 18550ish, give or take.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this.
current swing trade: Swing short since 18454 with SL 18600/18650. Will add higher if necessary.
trade of the day: Buying 18400 was decent today. Bulls defended that price and market was two sided enough for a couple of scalps.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.