2024-09-11 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - What a bear trap that was. Many decent double bottoms and then straight up melting. Many markets did not even touch the 3m 20ema on the move up. Bulls took full control again imo and I expect the highs to be retested, if not broken. SP500 the strongest of the ones I trade. Very very low chance of this being a bull trap after a bear trap and we reverse hard tomorrow but at this point of the chop, I won’t rule anything out.
dax futures
comment: Dax is not looking that strong like the sp500 does. Technically it’s currently just a two legged pullback to the daily ema and odds still favor the bears for another leg down. If the bulls break above 18550, that changes and bulls are favored to trade back to 18800 and above. Very important day tomorrow.
current market cycle: trading range until either 18550 or 18200 broken
key levels: 18200 - 18550
bull case: Strong reversal after the double bottom around 18220 today. If bulls generate follow through above 18550 tomorrow, many bears could give up and we see an acceleration upwards.
Invalidation is below 18400 (not sure about the invalidation level as of now).
bear case: Bears need a bit of a miracle tomorrow to prevent the bulls from breaking above 18550. The bear channel is gone and the 4h ema too. What arguments do bears have? Well, the current price action is wild in both directions. Since Friday we are in a 400ish point trading range. Technically, on the daily chart, it’s still just a two legged pullback to the daily ema and bears could try to get another leg down, I just highly doubt those arguments are better than the bullish ones.
Invalidation is above 18550.
short term: I wait for the breakout above given price. Bears would need to trade below 18400 before I think about shorts again. 18500 is a bad spot to enter new positions.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this.
current swing trade: None.
trade of the day: Short near the 4h ema was once again a very good trade. Buying the double bottom bar 4 Tuesday and bar 4 today.
tl;dr
Indexes - What a bear trap that was. Many decent double bottoms and then straight up melting. Many markets did not even touch the 3m 20ema on the move up. Bulls took full control again imo and I expect the highs to be retested, if not broken. SP500 the strongest of the ones I trade. Very very low chance of this being a bull trap after a bear trap and we reverse hard tomorrow but at this point of the chop, I won’t rule anything out.
dax futures
comment: Dax is not looking that strong like the sp500 does. Technically it’s currently just a two legged pullback to the daily ema and odds still favor the bears for another leg down. If the bulls break above 18550, that changes and bulls are favored to trade back to 18800 and above. Very important day tomorrow.
current market cycle: trading range until either 18550 or 18200 broken
key levels: 18200 - 18550
bull case: Strong reversal after the double bottom around 18220 today. If bulls generate follow through above 18550 tomorrow, many bears could give up and we see an acceleration upwards.
Invalidation is below 18400 (not sure about the invalidation level as of now).
bear case: Bears need a bit of a miracle tomorrow to prevent the bulls from breaking above 18550. The bear channel is gone and the 4h ema too. What arguments do bears have? Well, the current price action is wild in both directions. Since Friday we are in a 400ish point trading range. Technically, on the daily chart, it’s still just a two legged pullback to the daily ema and bears could try to get another leg down, I just highly doubt those arguments are better than the bullish ones.
Invalidation is above 18550.
short term: I wait for the breakout above given price. Bears would need to trade below 18400 before I think about shorts again. 18500 is a bad spot to enter new positions.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this.
current swing trade: None.
trade of the day: Short near the 4h ema was once again a very good trade. Buying the double bottom bar 4 Tuesday and bar 4 today.
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