2024-12-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax futures - Neutral until we get a decent 1h bar close below the 20ema. 20400 is overbought on probably every metric known to man. Does this mean we will sell off tomorrow? Sadly not. Can go even higher, since bears not doing anything and the buyers are still making money because we print daily new ath. Chances are there for a deep pullback into the weekend but they are very low and we need strong confirmation first. Zero interest in buying this.
comment: Break one bull wedge and print another. Bulls are still in control. Bears need a 1h close below ema , which would also be a break of the nearest lower bull trend line. 20300 tomorrow would be nice and anything below 20250 really bad for bulls. Got no more bullish targets for you. It’s a bubble. It will pop.
current market cycle: bull trend but very late and will end soon
key levels: 20000 - 20400
bull case: Even beyonder overbought today. Can obviously continue but buying this is asking for getting trapped.
Invalidation is below 20250.
bear case: The 1h 20ema now hold for basically 1100 points. It will break over the next 1-3 sessions. 20300 is the first target for bears and they should finally stop the market from making daily new ath. Still a couple of bullish patterns that need to be broken first, before we can talk about two-sided trading or bears having arguments for lower prices.
Invalidation is above 20400.
short term: Only waiting for bears to come around. Zero interest in buying. Below 20100 into the weekend would be nice but it’s unlikely.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-02: 20000 hit, hope you listened. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your current trading at all. Now it’s about being patient and waiting for the profit taking to start.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying the open, duh. 1h 20ema held for more than a week now.
tl;dr
dax futures - Neutral until we get a decent 1h bar close below the 20ema. 20400 is overbought on probably every metric known to man. Does this mean we will sell off tomorrow? Sadly not. Can go even higher, since bears not doing anything and the buyers are still making money because we print daily new ath. Chances are there for a deep pullback into the weekend but they are very low and we need strong confirmation first. Zero interest in buying this.
comment: Break one bull wedge and print another. Bulls are still in control. Bears need a 1h close below ema , which would also be a break of the nearest lower bull trend line. 20300 tomorrow would be nice and anything below 20250 really bad for bulls. Got no more bullish targets for you. It’s a bubble. It will pop.
current market cycle: bull trend but very late and will end soon
key levels: 20000 - 20400
bull case: Even beyonder overbought today. Can obviously continue but buying this is asking for getting trapped.
Invalidation is below 20250.
bear case: The 1h 20ema now hold for basically 1100 points. It will break over the next 1-3 sessions. 20300 is the first target for bears and they should finally stop the market from making daily new ath. Still a couple of bullish patterns that need to be broken first, before we can talk about two-sided trading or bears having arguments for lower prices.
Invalidation is above 20400.
short term: Only waiting for bears to come around. Zero interest in buying. Below 20100 into the weekend would be nice but it’s unlikely.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-02: 20000 hit, hope you listened. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your current trading at all. Now it’s about being patient and waiting for the profit taking to start.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying the open, duh. 1h 20ema held for more than a week now.
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