2024-12-09 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax futures - Weekly outlook on point. 20506 was the max and we have seen the start of profit taking today. I expect 20200 to be hit tomorrow or Wednesday but it will be a choppy way to get there. We have an ugly head & shoulders on the 30m/1h tf and the measured move goes to around 20200. Close is always close enough. It’s possible that we retest 20500 before another leg down, so don’t short the lows, unless there is a clear and strong break below.
dax futures
comment: Clear trading range 20300 - 20500 until we strongly break above or below. Bears closed at the lows, which is good for them and fits with my weekly outlook.
current market cycle: bull trend but very late and will end soon
key levels: 20000 - 20500
bull case: As long as bulls keep it above 20300, they are good. They want to keep the market in a tight trading range near the ath. That’s about it. Got no higher targets for you. 20500 is beyond insane but we can go higher if we see another Santa rally after the pullback.
Invalidation is below 20280ish.
bear case: Bears want to print lower highs and trap late bulls. If they strongly break below 20300 tomorrow, we could see some acceleration to bigger support. The poor structure between 19700 and 20300 is one giant spike that wants to be filled. For now I take it level by level. 20300 and then see if we can do 20200 and 20000 after.
Invalidation is above 20520.
short term: No bigger interest in shorting now lows but rather pullbacks, as long as we make lower highs. 20200 is my first target and if we go above 20400 again, I would only short 20500 again or on really strong momentum.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-02: 20000 hit, hope you listened. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your current trading at all. Now it’s about being patient and waiting for the profit taking to start.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: 20478 was previous resistance and the open was 20480. Shorting it was the trade of the day.
tl;dr
dax futures - Weekly outlook on point. 20506 was the max and we have seen the start of profit taking today. I expect 20200 to be hit tomorrow or Wednesday but it will be a choppy way to get there. We have an ugly head & shoulders on the 30m/1h tf and the measured move goes to around 20200. Close is always close enough. It’s possible that we retest 20500 before another leg down, so don’t short the lows, unless there is a clear and strong break below.
dax futures
comment: Clear trading range 20300 - 20500 until we strongly break above or below. Bears closed at the lows, which is good for them and fits with my weekly outlook.
current market cycle: bull trend but very late and will end soon
key levels: 20000 - 20500
bull case: As long as bulls keep it above 20300, they are good. They want to keep the market in a tight trading range near the ath. That’s about it. Got no higher targets for you. 20500 is beyond insane but we can go higher if we see another Santa rally after the pullback.
Invalidation is below 20280ish.
bear case: Bears want to print lower highs and trap late bulls. If they strongly break below 20300 tomorrow, we could see some acceleration to bigger support. The poor structure between 19700 and 20300 is one giant spike that wants to be filled. For now I take it level by level. 20300 and then see if we can do 20200 and 20000 after.
Invalidation is above 20520.
short term: No bigger interest in shorting now lows but rather pullbacks, as long as we make lower highs. 20200 is my first target and if we go above 20400 again, I would only short 20500 again or on really strong momentum.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-02: 20000 hit, hope you listened. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your current trading at all. Now it’s about being patient and waiting for the profit taking to start.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: 20478 was previous resistance and the open was 20480. Shorting it was the trade of the day.
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