Recession Onset ETA 2025-09-09 to 2026-01-01
Recession Onset ETA 2025-09-09 to 2026-01-01
NOTE: The length can last longer than the estimated onset of the arrival (2025-09-09 to 2026-01-01).
NOTE: The length can last longer than the estimated onset of the arrival (2025-09-09 to 2026-01-01).
Note
10-Year Treasury ( 
DGS10 ) should be falling very soon for additional confirmation. Although, it did fall in 2024 two times shortly.Note
A professor and former Department of Labor economist is issuing a recession warning.
- February 18, 2025
* Economist Warning Post Source: bsky.app/profile/jrothst.bsky.social/post/3liin7up3ck2z
* News Source: msn.com/en-us/money/economy/economist-warns-that-elon-musk-is-about-to-cause-a-deep-deep-recession/ar-AA1zrMEw
Note
* Source: [FOMC 2025-01-29 Meeting: federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20250129.pdf
AI Analysis:
When is the next estimated recession?
Based solely on these January 2025 FOMC minutes, there is no estimated recession explicitly forecasted. The document suggests a slowdown in growth, but the base case scenario is continued expansion, not contraction.
Is it possible to occur within before 2026-01 or before 2027-01?
Yes, it is definitely possible. The minutes highlight significant downside risks that could materialize and lead to a recession. These risks, such as global economic weakness, geopolitical tensions, financial vulnerabilities, and persistent inflation, could certainly trigger an economic downturn within either of those timeframes.
In conclusion:
The January 2025 FOMC minutes do not estimate a recession as the central forecast. They anticipate slower growth and acknowledge significant downside risks that could lead to a recession. Therefore, while a recession before January 2026 or January 2027 is possible based on the risks discussed, it is not presented as the most likely outcome within these specific minutes.
Note
Cross-AI Analysis (two AI's comparing the summary):
The minutes reflect "cautious optimism" and that a recession within seven months is "not strongly signaled" but remains a "tail risk." This accurately reflects the overall tone of the minutes, which do not project a recession as the most likely scenario but acknowledge sufficient risks to warrant vigilance and a data-dependent approach.
Note
My Economic Analysis Summary & Rates Forecast:
* We may see a longer timeline of relatively flat rates (best-case-scenario).
Past Historical Example (2001 recession onset):
* From 1994-11 to 2001-02 we had relatively flat rates; mostly near 5.5% (above 4.6%).
(75 months)
Current Example & Forecasted Rates:
* From 2022-12 to 2025-12 we may continue to have relatively flat rates; mostly near 4% (above 4%).
(36 months)
"The Great Recession" (2007 recession onset) looks like the current rates trend as of 2025-02:
* From 2005-11 to 2008-01 we had relatively flat rates; mostly near 4.5% (above 4%).
(26 months)
Conclusion:
* Based on the historical pattern of flat interest rates preceding past recessions, particularly "The Great Recession" (2007 recession onset), the risk of a recession before the end of 2025 has likely increased. This analysis suggests vigilance is warranted and recession risks should not be dismissed. However, this pattern alone is not a definitive prediction, and a comprehensive recession assessment requires monitoring a wider range of economic indicators.?
AI Analysis of Conclusion:
Recession Probability by December 2025: 25–30% (elevated but not decisive).
AI Overall Assessment of your Conclusion and Probability Range:
Your conclusion is well-balanced, cautious, and analytically sound based on the information we have reviewed. The recession probability range of 25-30% by December 2025 is a defensible and reasonable estimate that effectively communicates the key findings of our analysis:
* Recession risk is not negligible.
* Recession risk is elevated due to historical patterns and EFFR behavior.
* Recession is not the most probable outcome at this point.
* Continued monitoring of a wider range of data is crucial.
Note
Major Economies:
* United States: The Federal Reserve has begun cutting rates.
* United Kingdom: The Bank of England has been cutting rates.
* Euro Area: The European Central Bank has been lowering rates.
* Canada: The Bank of Canada has been reducing rates.
Other Countries:
* Switzerland: The Swiss National Bank has cut rates.
* Singapore: The Monetary Authority of Singapore has recently lowered its interest rate.
* Mexico: Banco de México has been lowering its target interest rate.
* Indonesia: Bank Indonesia has also cut its interest rate.
* Sweden: Sweden has also begun cutting rates.
* China: People's Bank of China (PBOC) has also begun cutting rates.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.