Short

France Yields: Fear Indicator / French Election

Updated

Watch yields closely in the next days and weeks until the French election.

Note

FEB 24 2017: France Government Bond (10 Y) Yield drops up to 5% (now minus 4.2%), same time European Stockmarket facing The largest sell off in 2017.
Same again here as well: Only one side can be right.

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Comment: FEB 24 2017: For German Readers - read how much the news are behind the curve.
m.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/a-1136120.html

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FEB 24 2017: Todays Opinion polls for the first round of voting

Marine LePen: 26%
Emanuel Macron: 23,5%

This is the highest number of likely voteres for Macron and might explain the sharp drop in France Government Yields today and in the last three days.

Source: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

Note

This Comment i posted in an other trading idea on FEB 2017 - one day before the drop of France Government Bonds started:

FEB 20 2017 Bond Traders Sentiment highly bearish as well.

Bond Traders Are Placing Euro-Breakup Bets Again

Quote:
by Stephen Spratt
Hidden under the surface of European bond markets, traders are placing bets that will pay out if the risks in the euro zone severely escalate. Markets across the continent have started to price in the increased potential for anti-euro candidates to win elections in France and Italy. Recent positioning in German and Italian bonds are hedges against a blow-up in the risk of a breakup in the common currency, said traders in London and New York, who asked not to be identified because they are not authorized to speak publicly. Six-month German securities have rallied more than benchmark tenors this month and open interest in two-year note futures has surged, suggesting investors are building up long positions in assets that are the closest to cash in terms of safety. The yield spread between Italian low- and high-coupon bonds has widened as traders bet against the latter, which would fall much more if the country’s creditworthiness is called into question.

Note

Source: investing.com/news/commodities-news/washington-pr-offensive-fails-to-quell-europe's-anxiety-over-trump-460798

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FEB 25 2017: Fake Sweden expert on Fox News – has criminal convictions in US, no connection to Swedish security

Story telling like this backfires European far right parties. U.S. and U.K. Traders underestimate how this is going to affect all European Elections. European Voters trun away from far right parties wich all supporting Donald Trump.
Source: dn.se/nyheter/varlden/fake-sweden-expert-on-fox-news-has-criminal-convictions-in-us-no-connection-to-swedish-security/

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FEB 25 2017: Tweets like todays from Donald Trump backfires more to European far right parties. Lets watch the upcomming polls in the next days and weeks closely.
twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/835325771858251776

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FEB 26 2017: Macron would beat Le Pen in French presidential runoff: poll
World3 hours ago (Feb 26, 2017 09:54AM ET)
Quote: (Reuters) - Independent French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron would beat far right leader Marine Le Pen in the second round of the French presidential election with 61 percent of the vote, according to an Odoxa/Dentsu-Consulting poll on Sunday. Source: investing.com/news/world-news/macron-would-beat-le-pen-in-french-presidential-runoff:-poll-462212

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FEB 26 2017: Bond Traders Master French Politics as Latest Treasuries Trigger
While speeches by President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen loom large for Treasuries traders this week, unforeseen developments in Europe may wind up fueling the most volatility. Source: bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-26/bond-traders-master-french-politics-as-latest-treasuries-trigger

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FEB 26 2016: New France Poll: Macron narrows gap to LePen for first round of France election
Macron: 25%
LePen: 27%
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

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FEB 27 2017: For German Readers: Neue Wahlumfrage macht Frankreich-Bonds beliebt
handelsblatt.com/finanzen/maerkte/anleihen/staatsanleihen-neue-wahlumfrage-macht-frankreich-bonds-beliebt/19447356.html

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Comment: FEB 27 2017: For German Readers: AfD sinkt in Umfragen
Angst bei den Angstmachern
spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/afd-brandbrief-der-afd-landeschefs-an-die-basis-a-1136479.html

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Comment: FEB 27 2017: For English readers: First post above for German Readers is saying, that Poll about French election had changed. Investors buying now French Government Bonds.
Second Post is saying, that Germany's far right party AfD lost now up to 50% of likely voters in the past 6 month and that AfD leaders going to feel some panic about this huge loss. The article is mention some actions the AfD now is doing to avoid more losses but it feels like something like panic, obviously.
Both articles confirming the thesis we follow here that Donald Trumps politics backfires finally European far right parties.

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Comment: FEB 27 2017: France Government Bonds dropping today another 3,5 % for the 4 day in a row.

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FEB 27 2017: New France Poll: Marcron narrows gap to LePen for first round of France election to 1,5%.
Macron: 24,5%
LePen: 26%
Source: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

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FEB 28 2017: France's Marine Le Pen may be losing election momentum — and investors like it

Qoute: Marine Le Pen's chances of becoming France's next president may be slipping and investors are breathing a sigh of relief.

A poll released Tuesday by French firm Ifop showed the far-right candidate's lead over centrist Emmanuel Macron declining to just 1.5 percentage points. Another poll released by Opinionway showed Macron defeating Le Pen in the May 7 runoff election. France holds two rounds of voting in presidential contests. French bond prices rose after the polls, bringing their yields closer in line with more steady German yields. The French 10-year note yield declined to 0.888 percent, narrowing its spread with the 10-year German sovereign yield to around 0.68 percentage point. Bond yields move inversely to bond prices.
French 10-year yield in 2016
fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/charts/2017/02/1488299610_Untitled.png
Source: cnbc.com/2017/02/28/marine-le-pen-losing-momentum-in-france.html

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FEB 28 2017 MEPs vote to lift Marine Le Pen's immunity for tweeting violent Isil images

Quote: A Group of European members of parliament on Tuesday voted "overwhelmingly" to lift the immunity of French far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen for tweeting pictures of Isil violence.
Ms Le Pen, 48, an MEP, is under investigation in France for posting three graphic images of Isil executions on Twitter in 2015, including the beheading of the American journal. Source:telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/28/marine-le-pen-angers-french-police-threat-purge-civil-servants/

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MAR 04 2017: French shares climb as Marine Le Pen loses ground
irishtimes.com/business/markets/french-shares-climb-as-marine-le-pen-loses-ground-1.2997149

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MAR 05 2017 World News | Sun Mar 5, 2017 | 3:13pm GMT
Pressure mounts on France's Fillon as party heavyweights look to Juppe
Source: uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france-election-idUKKBN16C0GM

Note

MAR 05 2017 France's Fillon makes no promises to stay as party fights for electoral survival
investing.com/news/world-news/senior-french-centrist-urges-fillon-to-step-down-for-juppe-463855

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MAR 07 2017: Dutch populist Wilders loses ground in the polls as 'Trump effect' comes into play: Analyst

Quote: Dutch populist Geert Wilders' popularity seems to be diminishing among the Netherlands electorate as his chances of an outright victory appear to be hampered by U.S. President Donald Trump's protectionist agenda.
With just over a week to go until the Netherlands general election, the leader of the anti-immigration Party for Freedom (PVV) is now running neck and neck with Prime Minister Mark Rutte's Liberals, according to a Peil.nl poll published Sunday.
"I can only speculate, but I think a negative Trump effects is at play," Holger Sandte, chief European analyst at Nordea, told CNBC in an email Tuesday.
Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/07/dutch-populist-wilders-loses-ground-in-the-polls-as-trump-effect-comes-into-play-analyst.html

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MAR 08 2017: Netherlands
Dutch Populist Geert Wilders Is Lagging in the Polls Due to the 'Trump Effect'
Source: time.com/4694764/geert-wilders-lead-slipping-because-trump/

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MAR 08 2017: Netherlands
Dutch Populist Wilders Feels Trump Burn With Slide in Polls
Source: bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-07/dutch-populist-wilders-feels-trump-burn-as-he-slides-in-polls

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MAR 09 2017:France's Macron seen on top in first round presidential vote: Poll
Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/08/frances-macron-seen-on-top-in-first-round-presidential-vote-poll.html

Note

MAR10 2017: 5 days before the Dutch Election Netherlands anti-Islam and anti EU Party PVV is falling behind.

Number of seats to win next wednesday:

VVD: 25
CDA: 22
PVV: 22 (Netherlands far right party, Geert Wilders, hould had won 38 in June 2016)
GL: 20
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017

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March 23 201, French Election: After first TV-Debate Macron is taking the lead for the first round of election

Macron: 26%
LePen: 25%
Source:en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2017

Note

MAR 24 2017: Trump's approval rating craters in poll — and his base is the culprit

Quote: President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to 37% — a new low, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released Wednesday. The poll found the president to be losing crucial support among Republicans, men, and white voters. The survey of 1,056 voters from across the US found that Trump's approval among Republican voters dropped to 81%, from 91% of those surveyed in a similar Quinnipiac poll two weeks ago. His disapproval rating among that group jumped to 14% from 5%.
The poll showed those in Trump's most supportive demographics — male and white voters — to be increasingly unhappy with his performance. Forty-three percent of men approved of Trump — down from 49% in the most recent poll, while 44% of white voters approved, also down from 49%. "Most alarming for President Donald Trump, the demographic underpinnings of his support, Republicans, white voters, especially men and those without a college degree, are starting to have doubts," the assistant director of the poll, Tim Malloy, said in a statement. Source: uk.businessinsider.com/trumps-approval-rating-craters-in-poll-and-his-base-is-the-culprit-2017-3?r=US&IR=T

Note

MAR 25 2017: Marcron taking the lead. France 10 Y Government Bonds falling back below 1,00%.

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Comment: MAR 28 2017: Poll shows Macron win in French election in shadow of 'Penelopegate'
investing.com/news/world-news/new-poll-shows-centrist-macron-beating-le-pen-to-win-french-election-469217

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Comment: MAR 28 2017: JPMorgan: A Le Pen loss will be a win for European equities

Quote:

If far right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen loses the election, it will spur a "significant" surge of inflows into European stocks, JPMorgan said in a note Monday.

How significant?

JPMorgan estimated that a Le Pen loss will see at least 10 percent of assets under management flow back into the region's stock markets. It noted that since the beginning of 2016, around $100 billion has flowed out of the segment, according to EPFR data, marking up a loss of nearly 10 percent of assets under management. "We believe that these flows at least could come back into the region, should political uncertainty fade, in addition to any potential new net inflows," JPMorgan said. Some opinion polls have shown that Le Pen, leader of the far right, anti-European Union, anti-immigrant National Front party, could be a top pick in the first round of voting in France's presidential election on April 23.
A healthy majority of analysts and experts believe Le Pen, who wants to pull France out of the euro zone, won't win the second round of voting on May 7 if she makes it past the first. But fears abound over a potential dark horse Le Pen victory, in line with political surprises such as Brexit and Donald Trump's U.S. presidential win. That's spurred concerns of a potential French exit from the euro azone, dubbed Frexit, and even a possible breakup of the bloc. While JPMorgan noted that any "Le Pen loss" lap of inflows was likely to boost the euro, it didn't expect that would weigh on European stocks, which have benefited from a weaker currency. "We think a stronger euro would not be an impediment for regional equities and, in fact, believe the euro will turn positively correlated to euro zone equities, no matter the election outcome," it said. It noted that the euro is typically seen as a vote of confidence in the region. Quote: cnbc.com/2017/03/28/jpmorgan-a-le-pen-loss-will-be-a-win-for-european-equities.html

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APR 01 2017: For Stockmarket Traders the Brexit is linked with "the rise of populism" in Europe. In most traders logic the Brexit should had caused a victory of Dutch far right party PVV (Gert Wilders) and should cause a victory of Marine LePen. The overall logic behind this story was to short European stockmarkets. This the rise of populism die not happened because voters in Europe turning away from populism, wich finally caused without any doubt the Brexit.

Two votes had been won by populists: The Brexit and the U.S. Election. Now lets have a look, how the latest approval rates are for Donald Trump:

MAR 30 2017: Majority of Americans think Trump's doing a poor job and the country is headed in the wrong direction: Poll
Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/30/poll-trumps-approval-rating-is-falling.html
Trump's approval rating slips to another new low, much lower than resent presidents at this point in their terms
Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/29/trumps-approval-rating-slips-to-another-new-low-much-lower-than-recent-presidents-at-this-point-in-their-terms.html

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APR 04 2017: Michael Hasenstab bets against euro in populist hedge

Quote: Michael Hasenstab is betting against the euro, a striking position for an investment manager celebrated in Europe for throwing the weight of Franklin Templeton’s flagship bond fund behind Ireland and Hungary as they emerged from the debt crisis. Speaking to the Financial Times, his comments highlight the concerns of many international investors, amplified following a campaign pledge from Marine Le Pen, presidential candidate of the far right in France’s upcoming presidential election, to withdraw the country from Europe’s single currency.

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Comment: APR 05 2017 - French election debate: Macron marches on as Le Pen loses out
Source: edition.cnn.com/2017/04/05/europe/french-election-debate-le-pen-macron/index.html

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APR 06 2017- Europe, Êconomy
Draghi says ECB's policy stance is still appropriate, too soon to reduce stimulus
Source: cnbc.com/2017/04/06/ecbs-draghi-says-monetary-policy-stance-is-still-appropriate.html

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APR 08 2017: Marine LePen now lost 20% of likely voters for first round of election compared to June 2016
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

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APR 10 2017 Goldman Sachs recommends a market bet as elections loom in France
Quote: France's presidential election is rapidly approaching, and Goldman Sachs is telling investors to stay cautious.
The investment banking giant recommended Monday that investors short French bond futures expiring in June ahead of the contest, amid the possibility that anti-establishment candidate Marine Le Pen or Jean-Luc Melenchon could stun pollsters with a win. Source: cnbc.com/2017/04/10/goldman-sachs-recommends-a-market-bet-as-elections-loom-in-france.html

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APR 18 2017 Europe's 'fear gauge' is rising ahead of first presidential vote in France this weekend
cnbc.com/2017/04/18/frances-borrowing-costs-are-under-pressure-as-political-uncertainty-rises-ahead-of-first-presidential-vote.html

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APR 18 2017: Euro up - unexpectedly

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APR 24 2017: Wall Street surges, Nasdaq hits record on French vote result
investing.com/news/stock-market-news/futures-rally-as-french-worries-ease

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Le Pen, Macron spar as French presidential race narrows slightly
investing.com/news/world-news/macron-campaign-for-french-presidency-off-to-slower-start-than-le-pen:-poll-477875

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Macron's Win: The Center Holds Firm in France
Independent centrist Emmanuel Macron beat out far-right Marine Le Pen with 65 percent of the vote.
theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/05/macron-wins-french-election-2017/525390/

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Comment: UK could be heading towards hung parliament after general election, pollster predicts
YouGov predicts the Conservatives may win just 310 seats – 16 shy of an absolute majority
independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-majority-poll-election-2017-latest-labour-hung-parliament-seats-theresa-may-conservatives-a7764271.html

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Polls suggest parliamentary majority within reach for France's Macron
reuters.com/article/us-france-election-idUSKCN18E07E

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The British election is in 3 days — and the polls are getting a lot closer
vox.com/world/2017/6/5/15739222/uk-election-jeremy-corbyn-labour-surge

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France Yields: Fear Indicator / French Election

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