TRADING IDEA: FXE JULY 15TH "SUPER BEAR"
Updated
There are basically two variations on a "Super Bear," the first uses a short call to finance a long put debit spread, the other uses a short call credit spread to do the same thing, the difference being that a naked call Super Bear is an undefined risk trade, while a call spread Super Bear is defined. In this particular case, in order to be capital efficient, I'm opting for trying to get a fill on a "Call Spread Super Bear." I'm doing this instead of just a short call credit spread due to its enhanced return on capital characteristics and FXE's historical habit of breaking down to 106; this setup will allow me to get the "boom" out of the short call spread, as well as the "kapow" out of the long put debit spread.
Here are the metrics:
Probability of Profit: 35%
Max Profit: 413/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: 387/contract
Break Even: 112.13
In this particular case, you actually receive a small credit for the setup ($13 at the mid price).
Notes: Here, the probability of profit is somewhat horrid. However, in this particular case, I take it with a grain of salt, since I not only have a firm directional bias in FXE/EURUSD, I regard the 112 to 112.50 area in FXE (comparable to 1.1450-1.500 in EURUSD) as long-term resistance from which it has repeatedly retreated. That being said, in the event I am "somewhat wrong" as to my timing, I'm opting to go farther out in time to give the trade time to develop and to envelope not only the Brexit vote, but also a possible FOMC June rate hike, which will strengthen the dollar and cause EURUSD and FXE to fall.
The ideal outcome is for price to finish below the 108 short put at expiry, but I would look to take the entire setup off as a unit for some significant percentage of max profit ... . Naturally, it is also possible to strip off the debit spread (assuming it moves into profit on a break of the 108 short put) first, allowing the short call credit spread to expire worthless if that scenario comes to fruition prior to expiry.
Here are the metrics:
Probability of Profit: 35%
Max Profit: 413/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: 387/contract
Break Even: 112.13
In this particular case, you actually receive a small credit for the setup ($13 at the mid price).
Notes: Here, the probability of profit is somewhat horrid. However, in this particular case, I take it with a grain of salt, since I not only have a firm directional bias in FXE/EURUSD, I regard the 112 to 112.50 area in FXE (comparable to 1.1450-1.500 in EURUSD) as long-term resistance from which it has repeatedly retreated. That being said, in the event I am "somewhat wrong" as to my timing, I'm opting to go farther out in time to give the trade time to develop and to envelope not only the Brexit vote, but also a possible FOMC June rate hike, which will strengthen the dollar and cause EURUSD and FXE to fall.
The ideal outcome is for price to finish below the 108 short put at expiry, but I would look to take the entire setup off as a unit for some significant percentage of max profit ... . Naturally, it is also possible to strip off the debit spread (assuming it moves into profit on a break of the 108 short put) first, allowing the short call credit spread to expire worthless if that scenario comes to fruition prior to expiry.
Note
I did not get filled on this setup, which is a good thing, since price broke above 112. One thing you'll notice on these "4-legged" setups that it is sometimes difficult to get a fill for the setup as a unit, and that it is better to break it down into pieces in order to get filled on them separately. In this case, I would go for a fill on the short call credit spread first, and then look for a fill on the long put debit spread ... .
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