GBPAUD SHORT at multi-month channel resistance and 50% fib
Updated
Favorable risk-reward short during last minute Brexit deal chaos. Stops just above 50% fib retracement (from Aug '15-Oct '16).
Price is at 1.9000
Technical Analysis:
- Psychological level 1.9000
- Multi-month channel resistance (since Mar '18)
- Just under 50% fib retracement at 1.9080 (from Aug '15-Oct '16).
- MACD, RSI showing extremely overbought signals (on daily, 4hr, 1hr)
Fundamental Analysis:
Risks: Last minute Brexit deal may drive price above 1.9100. However, even if there is a deal, it is unlikely that it will pass parliament emergency sitting on Saturday. From there, either extension (more-likely, could be GBP positive or negative) or no-deal (less-likely and extremely bearish GBP).
TP: 1.7650 (+1250 pips) SL: 1.9100 (-100 pips)
Price is at 1.9000
Technical Analysis:
- Psychological level 1.9000
- Multi-month channel resistance (since Mar '18)
- Just under 50% fib retracement at 1.9080 (from Aug '15-Oct '16).
- MACD, RSI showing extremely overbought signals (on daily, 4hr, 1hr)
Fundamental Analysis:
Risks: Last minute Brexit deal may drive price above 1.9100. However, even if there is a deal, it is unlikely that it will pass parliament emergency sitting on Saturday. From there, either extension (more-likely, could be GBP positive or negative) or no-deal (less-likely and extremely bearish GBP).
TP: 1.7650 (+1250 pips) SL: 1.9100 (-100 pips)
Note
+100 pips in profit so far and H&S developing. 4hr RSI and MACD severely overbought. Risk of deal being passed in parliament tomorrow which would invalidate/close this trade. Conversely, parliament voting against proposed deal could trigger big drop in GBP pairs
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