4-hour chart of GBPAUD reveals a critical juncture. We've observed a recent uptrend culminating in what appears to be a rising wedge formation. This pattern, characterized by converging trendlines, often signals a potential reversal, particularly after a sustained bullish run. The upper trendline has faced repeated tests, indicating weakening upward momentum. Crucially, the 2.04938 level acts as immediate support. A decisive break below this point would validate the wedge breakdown and likely trigger a significant bearish move.
Key Levels and Targets:
Immediate Support: 2.04938
Target 1: 2.03263 (Initial downside target)
Target 2: 2.00516 (70.0% Fibonacci Retracement)
Target 3: 1.97478 (100.0% Fibonacci Retracement)
Fibonacci Analysis: The price action has breached the 50.0% retracement level, suggesting a potential continuation towards the 61.8% and lower levels. The 70.0% and 100.0% retracements are critical downside targets.
Trading Implications:
Short Entry: A confirmed break below 2.04938 is the primary trigger for a short entry.
Stop Loss: A conservative stop-loss should be placed above the recent swing high or the upper trendline of the wedge to mitigate risk.
Risk Management: Given the potential for volatility, prudent risk management is essential.
Considerations:
Confirmation: A break below 2.04938 must be accompanied by strong bearish momentum and ideally, increased volume to validate the signal.
Fundamental Factors: Keep a close eye on upcoming economic data releases from both the UK and Australia, as these can significantly impact the pair.