GBP AUD - Poised to move higher towards 2.00 [VIP]
Hello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Master Key for zones
*Blue = Monthly
*Purple = weekly
*Red = 4 Days
*Yellow = 16 Hours
*Orange = Daily
*Dark Green = 8 Hour
*Grey = 4hour
*Pink = 1 hour
Previous Analysis below:
![GBP AUD - sit back and relax [VIP]](https://s3.tradingview.com/c/C1yOtvu3_mid.png)
Original analysis process.
Below is an explanation of the imbalance/inefficiency zones based upon the original analysis view.
1. Zone 1: - 1.72 - 1.75
we will be looking at a test of the order block, movement away to keep shorts flowing to keep the imbalance moving towards the zone of a 1.72 redistribution, liquidity to show bears further short options before the lows.
From here we will expect a spring and a test of said springs.
A rejection will occur and then see accumulation phase of price hitting the target on the AUD USD with bullish Aussie.
2. Exactly the same but making further gains moving down to 1.67-1.60 which will be the development.
We volume will be a key indicator here to see the set up of the buy/sell swaps.
Moving to now...
Monthly imbalances:
Pretty simple breakdown from a monthly perspective, where GBP maxed out in March 2020 and began the sellers imbalance to reach lows of 1.742 as previously stated above.
From a buying retrace imbalance - the targets are set at the 1.87 mark and 1.93 the next target. From a positional buy into 2022 if the 50% monthly Fibonacci retracement permits the target and holds above, then extension of 2.0X will be looked towards.
Weekly imbalance
While the GBP and Aussie is trading within a defined range - adding more positions on the range lows are pivotal here to maintain the long position.
The weekly position now is clear with the daily candle to close within the Weekly, the probability to continue the rally base rally is evident.
The movement since
Four Day
The four day line chart view has seen a view which has removed noise - which looks to a four day trading week
note, the red four day line to provide a key line where 1.85X
The pathway
Bullish scenario, combined with the bears using a weekly timeframe is below.
Using the bullish scenario firstly - where the white candles represent the bullish scenario. The weekly imbalance covers a strong are where price has now left after consolidating for weeks and broke through.
Price can now extend and revert back to 1.85XX, this will offer a strong opportunity to add positions here to get to the 2.XX+ target.
The bearish scenario is inclusive - where price can revert back to 1.82 which is a strong pivot point, however this scenario probability is low, as price has now left this zone. Price can create a new zone at 1.85 as a Fibonacci zone.
Volume profile
Here is a weekly profile which shows the bullish nature outperforming the bears.
Where the profile looks to the weekly the 1.82 had the reactive level which was of importance. Since then, has seen a stream of blue. meaning the bulls are in control.
Closely correlated pairs
GBP NZD and EUR AUD weekly chart and monthly chart respectively using correlation and imbalances.
Correlation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD
Imbalance spotting is important to note on one pair like GBP AUD, however the web behind the imbalance is just as important to keep in mind when looking for imbalance trades as pairs are called pairs for a reason.
Looking into two variables where correlation is either Perfect positive correlation +1, 0 or Perfect negative correlation -1 i in simple Lehman's terms.
AUD is coming from a monthly imbalance meanwhile GBP AUD will turn positive where price is coming from a monthly buy imbalance.
Comparing the GBP AUD to the AUD USD - using a monthly correlation grid.
The current at time of analysing is -79.7% negatively correlated. This has been due to the weak USD in play and the positive correlation against the SPX500 and the USD associated with the index. XAU is also a factor here whereby XAU a hedge against inflation and a propulsion for the Aussie to provide further additional strength.
Here is the graphical scale below:
Where by the inverse of the AUD from 0.80 and a low of GBP AUD to 1.768XX, the opportunity arises for short positions and respective longs for the GBP.
The DXY is pivotal
DXY to see the imbalance reverse upon the devaluation of the USD where the FED has created an abundance of credit which has financed the citizens essentially to 'stay put' in cases whereby specific industry sectors within the US are rendered 'useless' until the hospitality and entertainment, aviation can all be kick started again.
Below are the pivotal monthly imbalances on the chart which are hard to not notice. The Monthly imbalances clearly indicate where the profit targets for the DXY are as price has clearly rejected.
Use this monthly imbalance analysis to help trade in a higher time frame.
SPX vs AUD USD
with an importance note of GBP AUD.
The correlation of the SPX and the Aussie is a positive correlation when the SPX is bullish , this allows the AUD USD to remain bullish . With respect for USD purposes where the SPX becomes bearish from an imbalance or has a trend breather, the correlation becomes a sell imbalance for the SPX and AUD based upon the USD having the fundamental safe haven positional stance for investors.
Pre-march
Previous scenario
since the lowest point - where the monthly imbalance had hit the march low.
The current scenario
The update has seen the weekly imbalances from the march low of 2020, where price had a strong inverse correlation between AUD USD, GBP AUD with the DXY spiking also.
Now with a criteria regarding room to towards the imbalance, the monthly and weekly will offer the highly probable reactive levels.
Keep on top of the pairs and specifically the S&P for a fundamental view which affects the AUD.
Using Yields and the Volatility index to provide further evidence.
Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the SPX growth and AUD Bullish correlation.
Here are the weekly timeframes to support:
Do you enjoy the setups?
*Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets
*Focus on technical output not fundamentals
*Position and swing trades
*Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Master Key for zones
*Blue = Monthly
*Purple = weekly
*Red = 4 Days
*Yellow = 16 Hours
*Orange = Daily
*Dark Green = 8 Hour
*Grey = 4hour
*Pink = 1 hour
Previous Analysis below:
Original analysis process.
Below is an explanation of the imbalance/inefficiency zones based upon the original analysis view.
1. Zone 1: - 1.72 - 1.75
we will be looking at a test of the order block, movement away to keep shorts flowing to keep the imbalance moving towards the zone of a 1.72 redistribution, liquidity to show bears further short options before the lows.
From here we will expect a spring and a test of said springs.
A rejection will occur and then see accumulation phase of price hitting the target on the AUD USD with bullish Aussie.
2. Exactly the same but making further gains moving down to 1.67-1.60 which will be the development.
We volume will be a key indicator here to see the set up of the buy/sell swaps.
Moving to now...
Monthly imbalances:
Pretty simple breakdown from a monthly perspective, where GBP maxed out in March 2020 and began the sellers imbalance to reach lows of 1.742 as previously stated above.
From a buying retrace imbalance - the targets are set at the 1.87 mark and 1.93 the next target. From a positional buy into 2022 if the 50% monthly Fibonacci retracement permits the target and holds above, then extension of 2.0X will be looked towards.
Weekly imbalance
While the GBP and Aussie is trading within a defined range - adding more positions on the range lows are pivotal here to maintain the long position.
The weekly position now is clear with the daily candle to close within the Weekly, the probability to continue the rally base rally is evident.
The movement since
Four Day
The four day line chart view has seen a view which has removed noise - which looks to a four day trading week
note, the red four day line to provide a key line where 1.85X
The pathway
Bullish scenario, combined with the bears using a weekly timeframe is below.
Using the bullish scenario firstly - where the white candles represent the bullish scenario. The weekly imbalance covers a strong are where price has now left after consolidating for weeks and broke through.
Price can now extend and revert back to 1.85XX, this will offer a strong opportunity to add positions here to get to the 2.XX+ target.
The bearish scenario is inclusive - where price can revert back to 1.82 which is a strong pivot point, however this scenario probability is low, as price has now left this zone. Price can create a new zone at 1.85 as a Fibonacci zone.
Volume profile
Here is a weekly profile which shows the bullish nature outperforming the bears.
Where the profile looks to the weekly the 1.82 had the reactive level which was of importance. Since then, has seen a stream of blue. meaning the bulls are in control.
Closely correlated pairs
GBP NZD and EUR AUD weekly chart and monthly chart respectively using correlation and imbalances.
Correlation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD
Imbalance spotting is important to note on one pair like GBP AUD, however the web behind the imbalance is just as important to keep in mind when looking for imbalance trades as pairs are called pairs for a reason.
Looking into two variables where correlation is either Perfect positive correlation +1, 0 or Perfect negative correlation -1 i in simple Lehman's terms.
AUD is coming from a monthly imbalance meanwhile GBP AUD will turn positive where price is coming from a monthly buy imbalance.
Comparing the GBP AUD to the AUD USD - using a monthly correlation grid.
The current at time of analysing is -79.7% negatively correlated. This has been due to the weak USD in play and the positive correlation against the SPX500 and the USD associated with the index. XAU is also a factor here whereby XAU a hedge against inflation and a propulsion for the Aussie to provide further additional strength.
Here is the graphical scale below:
Where by the inverse of the AUD from 0.80 and a low of GBP AUD to 1.768XX, the opportunity arises for short positions and respective longs for the GBP.
The DXY is pivotal
DXY to see the imbalance reverse upon the devaluation of the USD where the FED has created an abundance of credit which has financed the citizens essentially to 'stay put' in cases whereby specific industry sectors within the US are rendered 'useless' until the hospitality and entertainment, aviation can all be kick started again.
Below are the pivotal monthly imbalances on the chart which are hard to not notice. The Monthly imbalances clearly indicate where the profit targets for the DXY are as price has clearly rejected.
Use this monthly imbalance analysis to help trade in a higher time frame.
SPX vs AUD USD
with an importance note of GBP AUD.
The correlation of the SPX and the Aussie is a positive correlation when the SPX is bullish , this allows the AUD USD to remain bullish . With respect for USD purposes where the SPX becomes bearish from an imbalance or has a trend breather, the correlation becomes a sell imbalance for the SPX and AUD based upon the USD having the fundamental safe haven positional stance for investors.
Pre-march
Previous scenario
since the lowest point - where the monthly imbalance had hit the march low.
The current scenario
The update has seen the weekly imbalances from the march low of 2020, where price had a strong inverse correlation between AUD USD, GBP AUD with the DXY spiking also.
Now with a criteria regarding room to towards the imbalance, the monthly and weekly will offer the highly probable reactive levels.
Keep on top of the pairs and specifically the S&P for a fundamental view which affects the AUD.
Using Yields and the Volatility index to provide further evidence.
Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the SPX growth and AUD Bullish correlation.
Here are the weekly timeframes to support:
Do you enjoy the setups?
*Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets
*Focus on technical output not fundamentals
*Position and swing trades
*Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI
Disclaimer
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