A fairly easy and straightforwarded trade:
Just short the GBPAUD on rallies as the RBA will (very likely) still hike rates in 2024, where as the UK is done with rate hikes and will cut much faster than the market expects right now.
UK:
- CPI will fall faster than the BOE expects it right now.
- Especially services inflation will has a big downside surprise risk
-> BOE sees it at 6.9%, where as I see it more at 6.7 or 6.8%
- UK Labour market will also weaken faster than the BOE expecs it, putting pressure away from wage inflation
-> BOE sees no rate cuts in 2024, where as I see Q2 2024 as the perfect time for the BOE to start cutting rates