GBPCAD - The GBP Is Unstoppable!
Updated
Analysis:
This is another setup that we see involving the GBP and this is pretty much the same as our GBPUSD setup. Firstly looking at price it's clear to see that we're in an upwards trend. We're forming higher highs and higher lows. We also have an upwards trendline which is being respected giving us even more confluence that we're in a strong upwards trend. Price formed this pullback last week which was expected, however we've now pulled back to an area that interests us and an area where we expect to see bullish momentum form. At this level we have a previous area of resistance. As we know resistance often becomes support once broken so this to us looks like a possible area of support. We have more confluences however which line up with our area making it not just a possible area of support but instead a strong area of support. At this level we have the 61.8% fib retracement level. This is often classed as the strongest fib retracement level meaning that we should see buyers step in and push price higher, going in favour of our idea. Another confluence that we have is the upwards trendline. When this trendline has been touched in the past we've see it be respected then the buyers step in and push price higher. History often repeats itself especially in trading so we expect this to happen. Again going in favour of our bullish thesis. The final technical confluence that we have is the slowing bearish momentum. On Friday last week we saw some bullish momentum step in and take control of the market, which is a strong sign to us that we could be seeing price reverse and continue its move to the upside. This morning we had some news that was negative for the GBP, however this move that we got, in our opinion was an over reaction and we expect to see price continue with the bullish momentum we saw come into the markets at the end of last week. We don't just have the technicals on our side but we also have the fundamentals. Currently the GBP is the 2nd strongest major currency whereas the CAD is the 4th strongest major currency giving us even more reason to be long on this pair. That's not the end of it though. As of the most recent COT report we saw an increase of 18K short positions and an increase of 24K long positions on the GBP, which is bullish. For the CAD however we have a different story. We saw an increase of 3K short positions, whilst seeing a decrease of 1K long positions. This is bearish for the CAD. Both the fundamentals and the technicals favour being long on this pair which is why we have a bullish bias.
Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read and responded to. We any comments at all so thank you!
Stay Safe - The JPI Team
Disclaimer:
This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does too. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
This is another setup that we see involving the GBP and this is pretty much the same as our GBPUSD setup. Firstly looking at price it's clear to see that we're in an upwards trend. We're forming higher highs and higher lows. We also have an upwards trendline which is being respected giving us even more confluence that we're in a strong upwards trend. Price formed this pullback last week which was expected, however we've now pulled back to an area that interests us and an area where we expect to see bullish momentum form. At this level we have a previous area of resistance. As we know resistance often becomes support once broken so this to us looks like a possible area of support. We have more confluences however which line up with our area making it not just a possible area of support but instead a strong area of support. At this level we have the 61.8% fib retracement level. This is often classed as the strongest fib retracement level meaning that we should see buyers step in and push price higher, going in favour of our idea. Another confluence that we have is the upwards trendline. When this trendline has been touched in the past we've see it be respected then the buyers step in and push price higher. History often repeats itself especially in trading so we expect this to happen. Again going in favour of our bullish thesis. The final technical confluence that we have is the slowing bearish momentum. On Friday last week we saw some bullish momentum step in and take control of the market, which is a strong sign to us that we could be seeing price reverse and continue its move to the upside. This morning we had some news that was negative for the GBP, however this move that we got, in our opinion was an over reaction and we expect to see price continue with the bullish momentum we saw come into the markets at the end of last week. We don't just have the technicals on our side but we also have the fundamentals. Currently the GBP is the 2nd strongest major currency whereas the CAD is the 4th strongest major currency giving us even more reason to be long on this pair. That's not the end of it though. As of the most recent COT report we saw an increase of 18K short positions and an increase of 24K long positions on the GBP, which is bullish. For the CAD however we have a different story. We saw an increase of 3K short positions, whilst seeing a decrease of 1K long positions. This is bearish for the CAD. Both the fundamentals and the technicals favour being long on this pair which is why we have a bullish bias.
Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read and responded to. We any comments at all so thank you!
Stay Safe - The JPI Team
Disclaimer:
This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does too. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Trade active
Our entry requirements have been met and our order has been filled. We are now long riding the GBP strength that we're currently seeing.Trade closed: target reached
Trade Closed
(+3.84R) Made
After Trade Comments:
What a trade this was to catch! This just goes to show that you need to trust your strategy and let your winners run. This one trade alone makes up for almost 4 negative trades. This shows the point that we've been making recently that you don't need a high win rate to be profitable. All you need is a win rate that correlates to your RR, whether that be a high win rate but low RR or a low win rate and high RR. Whatever works for you is what you should be doing. Don't listen to the people who say you need a high win rate to be profitable because you don't and we're the prime example of that. Find the strategy that works for you! Recently the GBP has been gaining more and more strength each week and finally we were able to get the move that we wanted to see, eventually hitting our take profit. Price was a little choppy to begin with but once we found support we saw price rally. Overall this was a great trade to catch and we're more then pleased about it. Anyway let's see if we can catch another trade like this!
Stay Safe - The JPI Team
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.