$GBPCAD Eyes Bearish Targets | $GBP $CAD #forex
Friends,
While the predictive/forecasting model is posting an early bearish market reversal signal, there are also fundamental and technical reasons to consider a potential bearish downturn in this
GBPCAD pair
FUNDAMENTALS:
Central bank decision regarding UK is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged. This implies that GGBP won't gain rally without this fundamental boost. In contrast, CCAD's economic numbers have shown improvement in the area of employment, despite free-falling prices in Oil and Gold, which are two important variables in its export-dependent economic equation.
See recent posting on Oil and Gold where predictive analysis is considering an interim relief in these commodities bearish pricing - See "Link To related ideas" below.
TECHNICALS:
- GEOMETRY: EXPANDING TRIANGLE
ThisGBPCAD pair is currently resolving an expanding triangle. However, looking into the internal wave count (a-b-c), the recent price action seems to lack a significant anatomical wave-c part.
For this reason, I have highlighted 1.81886 as a top-most structural level I would consider attainable for the fianl wave-c to occur - Although this is not a requirement, I would remain open to this potential necessity in terms of pure geometric form and development.
I also defined a lower value at 1.78916 as a threshold from which further bearish contemplation becomes feasible. More conservative traders might also consider the lower structural level defined by Point-D of the Expanding Triangle as well.
Notice that Point-E remains ghosted for the time being, on the expectation that further upside is possible. From an Elliott Wave Principle, and as mentioned above, an internal 3-wave count via a-b-c- points remains unclear as far as this Point-E. Also, looking at the general form of prior such internal counts in terms of amplitude and spread, I am not certain that Point-E is defined just yet.
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:
From a predictive/forecasting analytical standpoint, There are several levels to consider, namely:
1 - 1.84168, defined above current position as a significant overhead resistance. If indeed Point-E were to resolve at a higher level, I would expect that such level would occur up to, but not higher than this 1.84168 value.
2 - 1.84262-to-1.85396 range, defined as a significant bearish entrenchment. Regardless of above Elliott Wave Point-E definition and geometry, this level is a stand-alone bearish bastion, offering the strongest bearish repulsive forces possible. This also marks a level where if price did indeed break across and close across it, then further bearish delusions should be replaced by a neutral to bullish reality mindset.
3 - Numerical targets (offering potential retracement levels in the 0.382-to-0.618 Fibonacci range) have also been defined by predictive/forecasting model as;
a -- TG-1 - 1.75891 - 11 NOV 2014
and
b -- TG-2 - 1.73226 - 11 NOV 2014
whereas a nominal target (offering reversal potentials) has been defined as:
-- TG-Lo - 1.70855 - 11 NOV 2014.
OVERALL:
A set of fundamental and technical, as well as proprietary signals, is weighing down on theGBPCAD pair. Given trigger levels, and the unfolding of economic/fundamental data affecting these respective major currencies, a precautionary watch-and-wait stance is advised at this point, although the net directional bias favors the ursine breed so far - Despite these hesitant reasons, I am posting TradingView's directional indicator as "Short".
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive/Forecasting Analysis
Denver, Colorado - USA
----------
Twitter: 4xForecaster
----------
While the predictive/forecasting model is posting an early bearish market reversal signal, there are also fundamental and technical reasons to consider a potential bearish downturn in this
GBPCAD pairFUNDAMENTALS:
Central bank decision regarding UK is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged. This implies that GGBP won't gain rally without this fundamental boost. In contrast, CCAD's economic numbers have shown improvement in the area of employment, despite free-falling prices in Oil and Gold, which are two important variables in its export-dependent economic equation.
See recent posting on Oil and Gold where predictive analysis is considering an interim relief in these commodities bearish pricing - See "Link To related ideas" below.
TECHNICALS:
- GEOMETRY: EXPANDING TRIANGLE
This
GBPCAD pair is currently resolving an expanding triangle. However, looking into the internal wave count (a-b-c), the recent price action seems to lack a significant anatomical wave-c part. For this reason, I have highlighted 1.81886 as a top-most structural level I would consider attainable for the fianl wave-c to occur - Although this is not a requirement, I would remain open to this potential necessity in terms of pure geometric form and development.
I also defined a lower value at 1.78916 as a threshold from which further bearish contemplation becomes feasible. More conservative traders might also consider the lower structural level defined by Point-D of the Expanding Triangle as well.
Notice that Point-E remains ghosted for the time being, on the expectation that further upside is possible. From an Elliott Wave Principle, and as mentioned above, an internal 3-wave count via a-b-c- points remains unclear as far as this Point-E. Also, looking at the general form of prior such internal counts in terms of amplitude and spread, I am not certain that Point-E is defined just yet.
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:
From a predictive/forecasting analytical standpoint, There are several levels to consider, namely:
1 - 1.84168, defined above current position as a significant overhead resistance. If indeed Point-E were to resolve at a higher level, I would expect that such level would occur up to, but not higher than this 1.84168 value.
2 - 1.84262-to-1.85396 range, defined as a significant bearish entrenchment. Regardless of above Elliott Wave Point-E definition and geometry, this level is a stand-alone bearish bastion, offering the strongest bearish repulsive forces possible. This also marks a level where if price did indeed break across and close across it, then further bearish delusions should be replaced by a neutral to bullish reality mindset.
3 - Numerical targets (offering potential retracement levels in the 0.382-to-0.618 Fibonacci range) have also been defined by predictive/forecasting model as;
a -- TG-1 - 1.75891 - 11 NOV 2014
and
b -- TG-2 - 1.73226 - 11 NOV 2014
whereas a nominal target (offering reversal potentials) has been defined as:
-- TG-Lo - 1.70855 - 11 NOV 2014.
OVERALL:
A set of fundamental and technical, as well as proprietary signals, is weighing down on the
GBPCAD pair. Given trigger levels, and the unfolding of economic/fundamental data affecting these respective major currencies, a precautionary watch-and-wait stance is advised at this point, although the net directional bias favors the ursine breed so far - Despite these hesitant reasons, I am posting TradingView's directional indicator as "Short". Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive/Forecasting Analysis
Denver, Colorado - USA
----------
Twitter: 4xForecaster
----------
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