From a technical analysis perspective, the GBPCAD pair has been on an uptrend since September 2022, achieving a high of 1.68449 on 14th December 2022, after the high of February 2022. Since then, the pair has seen a retracement of more than 600 pips, leaving traders uncertain as to whether the corrective move has concluded.
In the short term, the H1 time frame show that the pair is still in a downward trend, but could soon break out of the 200EMA dynamic resistance. My indicators are pointing to a rally up to 1.63430 following Powell's speech, with further gains possible if the pound continues to strengthen.
The medium and long term outlook for the pair will be determined by how the British pound performs against the Canadian dollar. If the pound remains strong, the pair could break above the dynamic resistance, while a weakening pound could push the pair lower. My short term target is 1.63430, with medium and long term targets of 1.64327 - 1.64027 and 1.68482 - 1.68328 respectively. If price fails to break the M15 dynamic resistance, we could expect price to drop to the demand zone of 1.62142 - 1.62324.