British Pound / Canadian Dollar
Short
Updated

GBPCAD Analysis - Bearish - Trade 06

176
GBPCAD Analysis Overview

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1. Seasonality

GBP: Seasonality indicates a **sell** signal for GBP in the first week of December.

CAD: Seasonality suggests a **strong buy** signal for CAD.


Seasonality Bias: Sell GBPCAD

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2. COT Report

GBP:
COT RSI: 52 weeks at 30%, 26 and 13 weeks at bottom.
COT Index: 3-year at 50%, 1-year at 30%, indicating weak positioning for GBP.
Net Non-Commercial: Decreasing, showing a bearish sentiment.


CAD:
COT RSI: 52, 26, and 13 weeks at 20% and increasing, showing bullish momentum.
COT Index: 3-year and 1-year at 20% and increasing, aligning with a buy sentiment.
Net Non-Commercial: Increasing, with a positive bias.


COT Bias: Sell GBPCAD.

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3. Fundamental Analysis

Leading Economic Indicators:
GBP: Decreasing, signaling economic weakness.
CAD: Increasing, pointing to economic strength.



Endogenous Factors:
GBP: Decreasing, aligning with a sell sentiment.
CAD: Increasing, further supporting a buy stance.


Exogenous Factors:
GBPCAD exogenous signal indicates a buy CAD, sell GBP sentiment.


Fundamental Bias: Sell GBPCAD.

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4. Technical Analysis

RSI Divergence: Bearish divergence identified, indicating potential downside movement.

Breakout Indicator: A red arrow confirms bearish momentum on key breakout levels.

Resistance Zone: Price is currently at a strong resistance zone, showing rejection patterns.


Technical Bias: Sell GBPCAD.

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Final Bias: Sell GBPCAD
The alignment across seasonality, COT data, fundamental indicators, and technical analysis strongly supports a sell setup for GBPCAD.
Trade closed: stop reached

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