GBPCHF: Double Top Formation at Key Resistance Level
Updated
The price action in GBPCHF has recently unfolded in a way that aligns with the bearish scenario I outlined previously. A noticeable shift in market sentiment occurred when the pair decisively broke and closed beneath the ascending trendline that had been guiding the bullish momentum for some time. This break below the trendline is a key indication that the prior upward pressure has weakened significantly, shifting the overall market dynamics towards a more cautious, if not outright bearish, outlook.
Adding to this bearish case is the formation of a double top at a critical resistance level. This technical pattern is often a strong signal of an impending reversal, and in this case, it has further undermined the bullish structure that had been in place. The resistance zone around the recent peaks has proven to be a major hurdle, and with the double top now confirmed, it strengthens the case for a potential decline in price.
After testing and consolidating near the psychological level of 1.13000, the market has shown signs of weakness, dropping lower and suggesting that the bears are starting to assert control. This price action suggests that the bulls, despite some attempts to hold above this level, are losing steam. The recent price movements point towards a weakening of upward momentum and an increasing likelihood that the market will continue its retreat.
On the daily chart, we can clearly observe a phase of consolidation, where the price has been ranging within a well-defined zone. This period of consolidation appears to be coming to an end, with the price recently reacting off the upper boundary of this range. The bounce off this level seems to indicate a renewed bearish sentiment, and it is plausible that the price will now start to move downward, potentially heading back toward the lower boundary of the consolidation zone. The next logical target for the market would be a retest of this lower boundary, which is likely to provide some support, although it could also be a point of further breakdown.
What is particularly noteworthy is the behavior of the most recent daily candle. This candle closed firmly in the red, displaying a strong bearish move and reinforcing the idea that selling pressure is taking control. If this momentum continues, it is highly probable that the price will test the low of the previous day, potentially leading to further downward movement.
In the near term, my primary focus is on the support zone around the 1.11850 level. This area has the potential to act as a key level of support, where we could see some price action stabilization or even a possible bounce. However, the general market structure, particularly with the double top and the bearish daily close, suggests that the path of least resistance is to the downside, and 1.11850 could act as an important point of interest for further bearish continuation.
Given all these factors, I’m leaning toward a bearish outlook for GBPCHF, with eyes on the support around 1.11850 as the next critical level. If the market fails to hold above this area, we could see further acceleration to the downside, with potential targets coming into play lower down the chart.
Trade active
Price hit the resistance areaTrade closed: target reached
Target hit.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.