Barclays (LON:BARC) analysts issued a warning on Thursday about the challenging future facing global bonds, unless stock markets fall significantly. They point to several factors contributing to this outlook, including the US central bank's quantitative tightening program and rising budget deficits.
Analysts also noted a shift by Japanese investors to domestic debt following policy changes by the Bank of Japan. This shift, coupled with weak demand from foreign central banks, further threatens the appeal of U.S. Treasuries.
According to the Barclays research team, only a significant re-pricing of risky assets can stabilize the bond market. They believe that the recent 5% decline in the S&P 500 index is not enough to stimulate a recovery in fixed income markets. Analysts say a more significant downturn in the stock market is needed to bring stability to the bond market.
The analysis comes at a time when global financial markets are grappling with multiple challenges, including policy changes from central banks and economic uncertainties. As a result, investors and market participants will likely be closely watching developments in both equity and bond markets in the coming weeks and months.