Over the last four trading sessions, the GBP/JPY pair has appreciated by nearly 1%, favoring the British pound against the yen. This move has been driven mainly by the strength of the British currency, which for now has allowed a consistent bullish bias to take hold in the short term.
At the moment, the pound has remained strong in part due to the neutral policy stance taken by the Bank of England, which maintained its rate at 5% in the latest decision, reflecting continued high inflation in the UK. In contrast, Japan's situation appears different: in its most recent meeting, the Bank of Japan kept interest rates close to 0% after observing signs of inflation slowing, maintaining its ultra-loose monetary policy, unlike other central banks. The contrast between low rates in Japan and higher rates in the UK has created a divergence in central bank policy, making pound-denominated assets more attractive—a dynamic that has continued to weigh on the yen’s recovery in the short term.
Additionally, it’s important to consider that the yen is viewed as a key safe-haven currency. However, this week, following the ceasefire in the Middle East conflict, market confidence has rebounded, reducing constant demand for safe-haven assets like the yen in recent sessions. If these factors persist, they could support a stronger buying pressure on GBP/JPY in the coming days.
Broad Lateral Range
Although there has been an attempt to establish a short-term uptrend, the broader view on the chart still shows a clear sideways range, and for now, the price must once again face the upper resistance zone of that range to confirm a potential breakout that would establish a stronger bullish bias. Until then, the lateral range remains the dominant structure, particularly while resistance holds firm at the upper boundary around 198.245—a level where some corrective pullbacks may begin to build.
RSI
The RSI indicator has started to show lower highs, while the price continues to print higher highs. This confirms the presence of a bearish divergence, which could open the door for possible downward corrections to emerge on the chart.
MACD
The MACD histogram is hovering close to the neutral zero line, indicating that the average strength of the moving averages is still in a zone of indecision, with no clear dominant momentum. If this situation continues, the current bullish bias may struggle to advance further.
Key Levels to Watch:
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
At the moment, the pound has remained strong in part due to the neutral policy stance taken by the Bank of England, which maintained its rate at 5% in the latest decision, reflecting continued high inflation in the UK. In contrast, Japan's situation appears different: in its most recent meeting, the Bank of Japan kept interest rates close to 0% after observing signs of inflation slowing, maintaining its ultra-loose monetary policy, unlike other central banks. The contrast between low rates in Japan and higher rates in the UK has created a divergence in central bank policy, making pound-denominated assets more attractive—a dynamic that has continued to weigh on the yen’s recovery in the short term.
Additionally, it’s important to consider that the yen is viewed as a key safe-haven currency. However, this week, following the ceasefire in the Middle East conflict, market confidence has rebounded, reducing constant demand for safe-haven assets like the yen in recent sessions. If these factors persist, they could support a stronger buying pressure on GBP/JPY in the coming days.
Broad Lateral Range
Although there has been an attempt to establish a short-term uptrend, the broader view on the chart still shows a clear sideways range, and for now, the price must once again face the upper resistance zone of that range to confirm a potential breakout that would establish a stronger bullish bias. Until then, the lateral range remains the dominant structure, particularly while resistance holds firm at the upper boundary around 198.245—a level where some corrective pullbacks may begin to build.
RSI
The RSI indicator has started to show lower highs, while the price continues to print higher highs. This confirms the presence of a bearish divergence, which could open the door for possible downward corrections to emerge on the chart.
MACD
The MACD histogram is hovering close to the neutral zero line, indicating that the average strength of the moving averages is still in a zone of indecision, with no clear dominant momentum. If this situation continues, the current bullish bias may struggle to advance further.
Key Levels to Watch:
- 198.245 – Major resistance: This level marks the most important resistance on the chart, sitting at the top of the broader lateral range. Sustained bullish momentum above this level could trigger an aggressive buying bias, potentially extending the short-term uptrend.
- 196.406 – Nearby barrier: A short-term neutral zone, this level may act as a barrier to downward corrections if selling pressure increases.
- 193.592 – Critical support: This level aligns with the 50- and 200-period moving averages. If selling pressure brings the price back to this zone, it could negate the current bullish trend and give way to a broader sideways channel on the chart.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.