Very clear path for GBPJPY
We have a very similar setup to that in GBPNZD (see attached: "Expanding Diagonal in GBPNZD" for more information on the technical side as we will not be covering that here).
As expected the House of Commons rejecting the idea of a no-deal Brexit yesterday (although by default unless there are any changes we are heading for this outcome so it still remains in play). From the fundamental side, nothing has changed. As per today the UK is still set to lose market access with the block, meaning no withdrawal agreement and no transition period.
This will push inflation through the roof, drowning consumers, meaning household spending will remain weak throughout the forecast horizon. Weak wage growth and less credit capacity do not leave the UK in a comfortable position regardless of how the media is trying to sell this story.
In any event, the third and final chapter of the Brexit votes is commencing today. For this one we are tracking whether the HoC can agree on asking for an extension of Art. 50. From very good Westminister sources I can confirm PM May is seeking a two-month extension, however, even if the vote passes the EU are not optimistic with elections around the corner and are unlikely to play ball.
On the Japanese side, the fiscal-year-end repatriation flows to JPY have begun. This is a seasonality flow occurring mid-late March every year as Japanese companies repatriate foreign assets ahead of March earnings.
Best of luck!
As expected the House of Commons rejecting the idea of a no-deal Brexit yesterday (although by default unless there are any changes we are heading for this outcome so it still remains in play). From the fundamental side, nothing has changed. As per today the UK is still set to lose market access with the block, meaning no withdrawal agreement and no transition period.
This will push inflation through the roof, drowning consumers, meaning household spending will remain weak throughout the forecast horizon. Weak wage growth and less credit capacity do not leave the UK in a comfortable position regardless of how the media is trying to sell this story.
In any event, the third and final chapter of the Brexit votes is commencing today. For this one we are tracking whether the HoC can agree on asking for an extension of Art. 50. From very good Westminister sources I can confirm PM May is seeking a two-month extension, however, even if the vote passes the EU are not optimistic with elections around the corner and are unlikely to play ball.
On the Japanese side, the fiscal-year-end repatriation flows to JPY have begun. This is a seasonality flow occurring mid-late March every year as Japanese companies repatriate foreign assets ahead of March earnings.
Best of luck!
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