GBPJPY Crash?
Updated
Technical Analysis
We have continued to have a shallow retracement at the 23.6% level for months.
Price has attempted to break above the 1.18 and 1.27 extension to no avail.
I am anticipating a retracement atleast to the 38.2% fib level, wishful thinking but a retracement to the 61.8 would be even better.
I'm looking for a deeper retracement on this pair.
Fundamental Analysis
There are a few things happening politically.
Jerome Powell is mum about how aggressively the Fed will increase the interest rate. Talks are that rates should be at 100bps by summer of this year. Currently rates are at 25bps. This would mean that rates some time between now and June would see a significant increase. When there is uncertainty in the market, investors tend to pull their money out and put it into safe haven currencies, e.g. JPY and CHF. More money being put into JPY would essentially strengthen the currency. With JPY being the counter currency in this pair, if it becomes stronger than GBP, this could present selling opportunities.
Adding to the above, there is political unrest right now. There is risk of war between Russia and Ukraine. Should Russia invade Ukraine, Boris Johnson holds the sentiment that this will be the biggest war in Europe since 1945.
The Queen of England tested positive for the virus.
There is great probability that we will see the GBP weaken. Historically JPY has been weaker, but in current events...those are my thoughts.
We have continued to have a shallow retracement at the 23.6% level for months.
Price has attempted to break above the 1.18 and 1.27 extension to no avail.
I am anticipating a retracement atleast to the 38.2% fib level, wishful thinking but a retracement to the 61.8 would be even better.
I'm looking for a deeper retracement on this pair.
Fundamental Analysis
There are a few things happening politically.
Jerome Powell is mum about how aggressively the Fed will increase the interest rate. Talks are that rates should be at 100bps by summer of this year. Currently rates are at 25bps. This would mean that rates some time between now and June would see a significant increase. When there is uncertainty in the market, investors tend to pull their money out and put it into safe haven currencies, e.g. JPY and CHF. More money being put into JPY would essentially strengthen the currency. With JPY being the counter currency in this pair, if it becomes stronger than GBP, this could present selling opportunities.
Adding to the above, there is political unrest right now. There is risk of war between Russia and Ukraine. Should Russia invade Ukraine, Boris Johnson holds the sentiment that this will be the biggest war in Europe since 1945.
The Queen of England tested positive for the virus.
There is great probability that we will see the GBP weaken. Historically JPY has been weaker, but in current events...those are my thoughts.
Note
Short term.
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