I hate trading this bear when the Pound is so weak, but I shorted this pair at the top of the wedge @145.2 and we're now retesting the edge of the wedge again, we're consistently breaking lower lows, but it takes time to get there, takes ages to rise and then drops each time, just like this!
142 is the target, but with eyes on 140, this pair is hard-work, so unless you want to feel the highs and lows of this trade, don't trade it and certainly don't watch it. I'm hoping to be out of it by 3pm Friday. Review my long term view below.
142 is the target, but with eyes on 140, this pair is hard-work, so unless you want to feel the highs and lows of this trade, don't trade it and certainly don't watch it. I'm hoping to be out of it by 3pm Friday. Review my long term view below.
Trade active
Active 30-05-2018 - 19:36 @144.49Note
This is what we want to see....Note
Drop down into a lower time frame and we can see the trade winding up the breakout.... the trend is bearish and we have reducing volume, another bearish indicator, but it can still break up, and if it does, I'll sell it back down inline with the trend.Note
This is what I'm expecting..... Note
As expected, this pair is tracking back-up to the high of the wedge, but with no volume behind it, it's liable to break out of the wedge around 75% of the way up, especially with the previous open acting as resistance @144.5Patience with this pair.... especially with a weaker Yen right now
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Red zone is the resistance area, with the weak Yen and stronger Pound today, we'll be testing that a lot, another one that will go into next week, how I love this pair. *sarcasm Note
This wedge is no invalid and as I said, I wanted to be out of this trade by Friday.If you look at the long-term view below, I forecasted a deep pullback and then shoot up to 152.
Long term, we're in the low of this channel and currently battling the major resistance around 145.5 - 146 then it's back-up to 148, I'll be looking to reduce my losses on this trade, look for a pullback, add buy positions and then exit.
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My long-term view on this pair.
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Yen is gaining some strength in the last hour, pound remains strong, I'm still in and looking for an exit or a change in price action singals.Note
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I need to see another pullback down to 145.3 and I want to see it hold before I can be a buyer, this will confirm a trend change, how long for, I've no idea, anyone could use the word "Brexit" in the news and the whole thing comes back down.Trade closed: stop reached
Trade active
Buy order triggered at 145.4 - target 147.....Note
The Bank of Japan has cut 20bn in Government bond purchases, causing the Yen to plummet overnight and the UK pound is now one of the strongest currencies today based on some strong metrics, my Buy trade is at break-even should we pull back further, if so, I'd buy again. The pair are now trying to break the 200 day moving average and the upper side of the resistance box @146 I don't plan on holding this beyond today, simply reducing my losses.
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This is the trend line the Bulls are using, but the RSI / volume is no longer supporting them in low time frames, this could change rapidly either way. Note
A possible scenario, but the deep pullback may trigger a bearish sell off.Note
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Wiped out 65% of my losses if we hit 47 I'm 1.5% in profit, nice reverse tradeNote
Look at the volume indicator, 8 hours of buying, any pullback will move hit the moving average and more bulls will join the party, this is a tough sell right now. We need a move down twice with volume to confirm being a seller.Trade closed manually
Buy trade closed, 60% profits, so ultimately a loss, but dramatically reduced.Trade active
SellNote
target is 145.2 small intraday to recover losses from last week.Note
Trade is at broke even, I'm still bullish on this pair, I'm simply trading the pullback, it may not be very deepTrade closed: stop reached
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Today will be one of those days when trades are trying to find their levels, break levels and support new trends, you can see this in the aggressive moves happening very quickly. It's incredibly important you stay patient for an entry, don't enter to just be in the market and if you've got a trade on a long-term, swing trade, be prepared to see larger sideways movements and therefore don't sit and watch them, don't enter with anything less than a 15m timeframe and preferable a 1h.
The Pound isn't strong, but the Yen is very weak, forcing this pear to be bullish, but with a great deal of resistance above, important to allow the trade to break resistance and hold the move before becoming a bull, unless you are in the trade early.
Trade active
I'm still selling this, once it breaks 146.2, pulls back and rejects the move up, sell. I'm already short at 146.6Note
The pair has now confirmed a move to the downside by breaking 146, next step, 145 and we'll see how the bulls respond.Trade closed manually
Profits taken @145.8Note
This pair is now working it's way back up to the long-term rising channel, it will be under a great deal of resistance, but the Yen is weak, I forecast it will continue on it's way to 152 or further, as long as the Yen remains weak, any positive Brexit news and this thing will rocket higher, the contra isn't the same, a small move lower, but it'll be a pullback while the Yen is weak.Long-term forecast ...
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If you're making lots of trades per day and risking more than a few % of your trading account on each trade, and trading lots of the same pairs all the time, your not trading, your gambling and badly. That maximum I ever trade is 5% of my entire trading account and that's to the top of my stop loss and that's only if the set-up is a 5 star, I may do that once a week if I'm lucky, it's normally closer to 1-3% Don't trade to just be in the market in the hope of catching a move down or up, against this is gambling and not trading. Set your position size based on where the stops are relative to the previous structure.
If you're a total beginner trading with real money just following other traders, firstly you are crazy, secondly, I wouldn't trade more than 0.25% in that instance, if I was happy just following others, always do your own analysis and within your own trading plan / account management.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.