**Key Observations:**
1. **Market Structure:**
- A **strong bearish move** recently broke below the **Previous Day Low (PDL)**.
- **Change of Character (ChOCH)** occurred at the lower levels, indicating a potential reversal attempt.
- Price has tapped into the **discount zone** and reacted sharply, suggesting some buying interest.
2. **Liquidity Areas:**
- **Previous Weak Low (PWL) & Discount Zone (Below 188.000)**: This zone acted as a liquidity grab.
- **Previous Day High (PDH ~190.000)**: A strong supply area that might be targeted if price reverses.
- **Premium Zone (~190.200 & Above)**: Heavy resistance exists here, meaning buyers would need strong momentum to push through.
3. **Current Price Action:**
- The price has **rejected from the discount zone**, which is a key demand area.
- The price is trading **below equilibrium**, meaning it's still in a discounted state.
- If buyers step in, we might see an attempt to reclaim equilibrium (~188.800-189.200).
*Probability-Based Scenarios:**
1. **Bullish Scenario (Rebound Towards Equilibrium or PDH)**
- **Probability: 55%**
- **Reasons:**
- Price reacted to the **discount zone**, showing some bullish interest.
- ChOCH signals a possible shift in momentum.
- If price **breaks and holds above 188.600**, it could move toward **equilibrium (~188.800-189.200)** or even **PDH (190.000)**.
2. **Bearish Scenario (Continuation Below PWL & Weak Low)**
- **Probability: 45%**
- **Reasons:**
- If price **fails to reclaim equilibrium**, sellers may push it back toward **weak lows (187.800 area)**.
- The market is still in a bearish trend, and this could just be a temporary retracement before another drop.
- If price **fails at 188.600**, a return to the demand zone is likely.
**Final Thoughts:**
- **Slightly higher probability for a bullish retracement (55%)**, but the trend remains bearish.
- **Key Confirmation Needed:**
- **Above 188.600:** Bullish move toward equilibrium.
- **Below 188.200:** Bearish continuation likely.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.