I'm currently holding a bearish bias on GBP/JPY, anticipating a short-term correction after recent overbought conditions. Price action shows signs of exhaustion, and I'm expecting a move downward to fill the Fair Value Gaps (FVG) left behind during the previous bullish impulse.
Trade Rationale:
Overbought Conditions: After a strong upside move, price has reached a zone where buyers are losing momentum, hinting at a potential reversal or pullback.
Imbalance/FVG Zones: Clear inefficiencies exist below current price levels, and I expect the market to retrace to fill these imbalances as part of its natural rebalancing.
Structure & Supply: The market is showing reaction near a significant supply zone, which could act as the catalyst for bearish continuation.
Target Zones:
Risk Management:
Stops are placed just above recent highs, invalidating the idea if the market breaks structure and continues bullish. The setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio aligned with smart money concepts like imbalance fills and demand/supply reactions.
📉 Plan: Waiting for clear bearish confirmation (e.g., lower timeframe break of structure) before fully committing to the short position.
Trade Rationale:
Overbought Conditions: After a strong upside move, price has reached a zone where buyers are losing momentum, hinting at a potential reversal or pullback.
Imbalance/FVG Zones: Clear inefficiencies exist below current price levels, and I expect the market to retrace to fill these imbalances as part of its natural rebalancing.
Structure & Supply: The market is showing reaction near a significant supply zone, which could act as the catalyst for bearish continuation.
Target Zones:
- TP1: First demand zone where minor support may form — partials can be taken here.
- TP2: Deeper demand zone aligned with previous consolidation — a high-probability area for price to react and potentially reverse or consolidate again.
Risk Management:
Stops are placed just above recent highs, invalidating the idea if the market breaks structure and continues bullish. The setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio aligned with smart money concepts like imbalance fills and demand/supply reactions.
📉 Plan: Waiting for clear bearish confirmation (e.g., lower timeframe break of structure) before fully committing to the short position.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.