GBPUSD comments at the beginning of the week
Updated
Cable had a volatile week, driven almost entirely by top tier US data (US CPI, FOMC forecasts). The welcomed inflation data on Wednesday and subsequent rise in the pair was pulled back a few hours later with more hawkish revisions to the inflation outlook.
Since then FX markets have prioritized the hawkish projections over the encouraging inflation data – the reverse of what has been seen in the US stock market as major indices achieved new all time highs. Continued progress in inflation and a more dovish BoE could extend the current move lower, towards 1.2585 and possibly even the 200 SMA.
Since then FX markets have prioritized the hawkish projections over the encouraging inflation data – the reverse of what has been seen in the US stock market as major indices achieved new all time highs. Continued progress in inflation and a more dovish BoE could extend the current move lower, towards 1.2585 and possibly even the 200 SMA.
Note
From a technical perspective, GBP/USD is receiving significant support around 1.2670, corresponding to the 50 EMA and close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement threshold of the uptrend from April. Further down will be the 1.2600 area, corresponding with the 200 EMA and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.Note
Note
Since touching the support area of 1.2600, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci threshold calculated based on the increase from April, GBP/USD has continuously increased to near the peak of June, and at the same time entered the strong resistance area of 1.2800-1.2900. Therefore, the increased selling pressure is quite understandable.
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