Key Levels:
On Wednesday 17 July, GBPUSD broke the 1.30 price level. However, prices reversed below this level after CPI data was released. Provided that price remains below the 1.30 price level, we can see prices target 1.29 and 1.28.
UK Economic Numbers:
CPI y/y (Inflation) - Actual (2.0%) higher than forecast (1.90%)
Unemployment Claimants - Actual (32.3k) higher than forecast (23.4k)
Retail Sales - Actual (-1.20%) lower than forecast (-0.6%)
The economic numbers above from July 14 - July 20 are negative for the GBP. Therefore, selling pressure is expected on the GBP.
Interest Rates:
The US Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates in September.
With UK inflation numbers remaining the same, the Bank of England may not cut rates in August.
Overall Trend:
Since January 2023, GBP has been outperforming the USD due to the Bank of Englands higher interest rates. As both the Bank of England and Federal Reserve are expected to cut rates by the end of the year, I expect GBPUSD to continue in a range bound market.
My Trade Plan:
I will be paying attention to price action around price levels 1.29494 and 1.29038.
If price breaks and maintains itself below 1.29038, I will start selling.
Next week July 21 - July 27 we will see US and UK Flash PMI numbers, US Advance GDP, US Unemployment Claims and US Core PCE Price Index. Strong US data will push GBPUSD lower down to 1.28.
- 1.30
- 1.28
- 1.26
On Wednesday 17 July, GBPUSD broke the 1.30 price level. However, prices reversed below this level after CPI data was released. Provided that price remains below the 1.30 price level, we can see prices target 1.29 and 1.28.
UK Economic Numbers:
CPI y/y (Inflation) - Actual (2.0%) higher than forecast (1.90%)
Unemployment Claimants - Actual (32.3k) higher than forecast (23.4k)
Retail Sales - Actual (-1.20%) lower than forecast (-0.6%)
The economic numbers above from July 14 - July 20 are negative for the GBP. Therefore, selling pressure is expected on the GBP.
Interest Rates:
The US Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates in September.
With UK inflation numbers remaining the same, the Bank of England may not cut rates in August.
Overall Trend:
Since January 2023, GBP has been outperforming the USD due to the Bank of Englands higher interest rates. As both the Bank of England and Federal Reserve are expected to cut rates by the end of the year, I expect GBPUSD to continue in a range bound market.
My Trade Plan:
I will be paying attention to price action around price levels 1.29494 and 1.29038.
If price breaks and maintains itself below 1.29038, I will start selling.
Next week July 21 - July 27 we will see US and UK Flash PMI numbers, US Advance GDP, US Unemployment Claims and US Core PCE Price Index. Strong US data will push GBPUSD lower down to 1.28.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.