GBPUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up
Updated
Amidst the uncertainty characterized by global events, last week witnessed the GBP/USD pair caught in the crosscurrents of rising geopolitical tensions and pivotal central bank pronouncements. Bank of England's Deputy Governor, Dave Ramsden, took centre stage with remarks on inflation risks, yet failed to provide the anticipated support for Sterling as it plunged to new depths.
The UK's economic landscape presented a mixed picture, with March's retail sales stagnating while annual growth maintained a modest trajectory. Against this backdrop, the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve emerged as key players, wielding their influence to shape market sentiment.
The journey across the pond unveiled a contrasting narrative, with robust US Retail Sales figures sparking a reassessment of interest rate projections and propelling the US 10-year note yield to unprecedented heights.
While Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic cautioned against persistent inflation, New York Fed President John Williams struck a more measured chord, emphasizing the Fed's data-driven approach and its nuanced stance on monetary policy.
In this video, we dissect the implications of these developments and chart our course for the new week in GBP/USD trading.
GBPUSD Technical Analysis:
Will the pound maintain its momentum below the critical $1.24200 zone?
In this video, we've examined both the daily and 4-hour timeframes, dissecting bullish and bearish sentiments to unearth the most promising trades for the week ahead. Our analysis dives deep into key levels, trendlines, and support/resistance points, providing invaluable insights into the prevailing market structure.
Our focus remains fixed on the pivotal level at $1.24200, where the direction of price action could herald the onset of significant market shifts. How the market responds here will chart the course for GBP/USD in the days to come.
Stay engaged and join the discourse in the comment section to stay abreast of the latest developments. Thank you for tuning in, and brace yourselves for further illuminating insights into GBP/USD in our upcoming content. Get ready for an exhilarating journey ahead! Happy trading!
Disclaimer Notice:
Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy.
It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances.
Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it.
Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
The UK's economic landscape presented a mixed picture, with March's retail sales stagnating while annual growth maintained a modest trajectory. Against this backdrop, the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve emerged as key players, wielding their influence to shape market sentiment.
The journey across the pond unveiled a contrasting narrative, with robust US Retail Sales figures sparking a reassessment of interest rate projections and propelling the US 10-year note yield to unprecedented heights.
While Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic cautioned against persistent inflation, New York Fed President John Williams struck a more measured chord, emphasizing the Fed's data-driven approach and its nuanced stance on monetary policy.
In this video, we dissect the implications of these developments and chart our course for the new week in GBP/USD trading.
GBPUSD Technical Analysis:
Will the pound maintain its momentum below the critical $1.24200 zone?
In this video, we've examined both the daily and 4-hour timeframes, dissecting bullish and bearish sentiments to unearth the most promising trades for the week ahead. Our analysis dives deep into key levels, trendlines, and support/resistance points, providing invaluable insights into the prevailing market structure.
Our focus remains fixed on the pivotal level at $1.24200, where the direction of price action could herald the onset of significant market shifts. How the market responds here will chart the course for GBP/USD in the days to come.
Stay engaged and join the discourse in the comment section to stay abreast of the latest developments. Thank you for tuning in, and brace yourselves for further illuminating insights into GBP/USD in our upcoming content. Get ready for an exhilarating journey ahead! Happy trading!
Disclaimer Notice:
Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy.
It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances.
Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it.
Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
Trade active
The GBP/USD pair showed signs of a modest recovery during the Asian session, yet it remains within a potential bearish trend continuation pattern, with price action confined between $1.23925 and $1.23670, highlighting prevailing uncertainty in the market.Expectations of a prolonged period of elevated inflation in the US may bolster the US Dollar, tilting the path of least resistance towards bearish territory. Additionally, speculations of more aggressive policy easing by the Bank of England (BoE) could limit further appreciation of the GBP/USD pair.
Today's economic calendar lacks significant market-moving data releases from both the UK and the US, leaving spot prices vulnerable to fluctuations driven by USD price dynamics. As such, we continue to rely on chart levels as our guide in navigating current market conditions.
Good Morning
Trade active
UPDATEAs discussed during our live session; sell position triggered
Trade active
It is time to secure some profit while we look out for new opportunities.Trade closed manually
All sell positions closed with some profit. The structures remain valid for new trading opportunitiesNote
GBPUSD is showing signs of recovery after yesterday's decline, with the pair forming higher lows in the process. However, the upside potential may be limited as traders await the release of UK PMI reports in the next 30 minutes for fresh trading direction.The overall positive risk sentiment, fueled by reduced concerns about a broader conflict in the Middle East, is dampening the US Dollar and offering some support to GBPUSD. Nonetheless, the growing belief that the Federal Reserve will maintain higher interest rates due to persistent inflation is bolstering the US Dollar.
In the meantime, the levels identified on the chart remain intact for trading opportunities today while we consider that any meaningful recovery is likely to confront stiff resistance near the 1.23925 resistance breakpoint, which if cleared might trigger a short reccovering rally and lift prices further to the upside.
Good Morning.
Trade active
#GBPUSDBuy positions triggered; secure some profit
Trade active
#GBPUSDThree buy positions still active; ensure some profit are secured
Note
The GBP/USD maintained a range-bound structure during the Asian session; However, the bullish outlook remains intact. The US Dollar faced selling pressure due to the downbeat US April PMI data and an increasing appetite for risk-linked assets.The flash Manufacturing PMI for April fell to 49.9 from the previous reading of 51.9, while the Services PMI dropped to 50.9 from 51.7, both below market expectations. This data contributed to the weakening of the USD.
Speculation regarding a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in the summer decreased as UK Chief Economist emphasized the importance of maintaining a "restrictive" monetary policy. His comments on Tuesday highlighted that easing policy based solely on headline inflation was not justified, suggesting greater risks associated with premature rate cuts. These remarks supported the Pound Sterling (GBP) against the USD.
In light of the current bearish sentiment, it may be prudent to secure some profit. Looking ahead, the GBP/USD pair could find significant support near the levels of 1.24200/$1.23925. We shall monitor these levels closely for potential trading opportunities.
Good Morning
Note
#GBPUSDWe have a new structural set-up ahead of the data from the US Durable Goods Order.
Trade active
Two buy positions were triggered as the GBP/USD pair continued its two-day winning streak.Moving forward, the market's attention will be focused on significant US macroeconomic data, notably the Advance Q1 GDP report scheduled for release later today, followed by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Friday. Concurrently, expectations of the Federal Reserve delaying interest rate cuts due to persistent inflationary pressures continue to bolster the US Dollar (USD). Conversely, speculation regarding potentially more aggressive policy easing by the Bank of England (BoE) undermines demand for the British Pound (GBP), thereby posing a challenge for the GBP/USD pair.
Given the prevailing market conditions, it is advisable to secure all positions at this time.
Good Morning
Trade active
It is time to secure some profit as the third position is triggeredTrade active
STRUCTURAL UPDATETrade closed manually
All buy positions have been closed as selling pressure resumes following the release of US GDP figures below expectations at 1.6%. Currently, price action is trading along the ascending trendline. We will closely monitor the market's reaction to this trendline to identify potential new trading opportunities. Stay tuned for further updates.Note
#GBPUSDSTRUCTURAL UPDATE
Breakdown/retest of the ascending trendline and $1.24600 welcomes selling opportunities.
Trade active
Secure the current buy position as sellers lose the momentum along the ascending trendline.Trade closed manually
All buy positions have been closed with profit as the GBP/USD exhibits weakness, with buyers encountering resistance around the $1.25215 zone during the Asian trading session, indicating a potential loss of momentum. Despite weaker-than-expected US GDP growth figures, a modest rebound of the US Dollar is exerting downward pressure on the major pair.The latest GDP report reveals a slower growth rate of 1.6% for the US economy in the first quarter of 2024, down from 3.4% in the previous period and below market expectations of 2.5%.
Meanwhile, in the UK, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey and other policymakers have noted a decline in inflation, aligning with the central bank's projections and reducing the risk of elevated inflation. This stance suggests a potential for a rate cut in the near future, although expectations are for the BoE to delay such action until the next quarter, possibly preceding similar moves by the US Federal Reserve. This anticipation may limit the upside potential of the Pound Sterling (GBP).
Given these developments, the ascending trendline will be instrumental in guiding our trading decisions today as market participants plan to round off their trading activities ahead of the weekend. We will delve deeper into this analysis during our upcoming live session this morning.
Good Morning.
Trade active
UPDATE: Sell triggeredTrade active
Two sell positions triggered; secure some profit
Trade smart. Trade consciously
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.