CABLE SHORT TO 1.30: Fundamental and Technical
Updated
GBPUSD is trading above 1.33 today, despite the broad risk-off sentiment which has seen JPY up on the day.
Fundamentally: Fed members are hawkish, and at least 1 rate hike is on the table this year. September is a close call - and if we believe the hawkish rhetoric of the FOMC recently - the market is underpricing a rate hike in September. This is bullish for USD.
The UK has seen a slew of good data, however the risks of Brexit remain, as well as the uncertainty about the process itself. Furthermore, it is likely that BoE cut rates in November to protect the economy from such risks, in the event they do arise. QE is still ongoing, however GBPUSD trades above pre-QE levels. This may mean Sterling is overvalued in the near term.
Technically: there is strong resistance at 1.345 / 1.35. The hourly chart shows strong divergence above 1.34. There is much risk to the downside - 500 pips till the post-Brexit low of 1.28.
CFTC data: a few weeks ago, GBP shorts were at record highs. Since then, shorts have reduced. This suggests there is potential for shorts to start building positions again, and that the GBP short squeeze came to an end when Cable was abruptly rejected from 1.345.
Many major banks forecast Cable below 1.30 by the end of the year. I agree with this, and am short from 1.33 until 1.30, after which I will re-enter short on pullbacks or on a clear break of 1.30.
Fundamentally: Fed members are hawkish, and at least 1 rate hike is on the table this year. September is a close call - and if we believe the hawkish rhetoric of the FOMC recently - the market is underpricing a rate hike in September. This is bullish for USD.
The UK has seen a slew of good data, however the risks of Brexit remain, as well as the uncertainty about the process itself. Furthermore, it is likely that BoE cut rates in November to protect the economy from such risks, in the event they do arise. QE is still ongoing, however GBPUSD trades above pre-QE levels. This may mean Sterling is overvalued in the near term.
Technically: there is strong resistance at 1.345 / 1.35. The hourly chart shows strong divergence above 1.34. There is much risk to the downside - 500 pips till the post-Brexit low of 1.28.
CFTC data: a few weeks ago, GBP shorts were at record highs. Since then, shorts have reduced. This suggests there is potential for shorts to start building positions again, and that the GBP short squeeze came to an end when Cable was abruptly rejected from 1.345.
Many major banks forecast Cable below 1.30 by the end of the year. I agree with this, and am short from 1.33 until 1.30, after which I will re-enter short on pullbacks or on a clear break of 1.30.
Trade closed: target reached
Trade complete! Take profit 1 and 2 reached
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