GBPUSD Long-Term Buy (TRADE OF THE YEAR?)
Updated
Citi has not shut up about their GBP bullish picks for the end of the year. And they might be on to something this time. This could be the trade of the year.
Brexit will be a better deal than expected. Trump will exploit the window of vulnerability to push headlines for a new 'bilateral' or nafta plus option. The rumor alone will be good and it really isn't on anyone's radar yet. Even if elections somehow result in a second referendum, still bullish. Large specs are positioning for bullish value capture over the next month. Doesn't mean they can see the future, but the upside is the better value for their 'RR' as retail traders would say.
USD could still have some kick this holiday (consumer spending obviously), a lot of early warning indicators about CPI (non-official reports) will be closely watched by investors (as they try to make judgments about the FED rate). It doesn't necessarily mean continued USD strength however. It's all very spurious in my opinion and the trade war optimism is misplaced and the global macro situation is bad bad bad, which you can read more about in my gold trade.
Expect a lot of political/social event-derived volatility. It might throw historical volatility and seasonality out the window. I don't usually do long-term trades like this, due to certain opportunity costs for my fund, but overall this should be one for the books.
The odds, and entertainment, are better than gambling.
Remember to follow, my published charts have made 100s of pips in the past weeks. I use a lot of non-traditional TA alongside global macro and other relevant fundamental research to develop these charts; these factors more accurately predict the behaviors of markets than moon cycles and inverse butterflies.
Remember to trade responsibly, especially with this. Smaller lots than normal.
Brexit will be a better deal than expected. Trump will exploit the window of vulnerability to push headlines for a new 'bilateral' or nafta plus option. The rumor alone will be good and it really isn't on anyone's radar yet. Even if elections somehow result in a second referendum, still bullish. Large specs are positioning for bullish value capture over the next month. Doesn't mean they can see the future, but the upside is the better value for their 'RR' as retail traders would say.
USD could still have some kick this holiday (consumer spending obviously), a lot of early warning indicators about CPI (non-official reports) will be closely watched by investors (as they try to make judgments about the FED rate). It doesn't necessarily mean continued USD strength however. It's all very spurious in my opinion and the trade war optimism is misplaced and the global macro situation is bad bad bad, which you can read more about in my gold trade.
Expect a lot of political/social event-derived volatility. It might throw historical volatility and seasonality out the window. I don't usually do long-term trades like this, due to certain opportunity costs for my fund, but overall this should be one for the books.
The odds, and entertainment, are better than gambling.
Remember to follow, my published charts have made 100s of pips in the past weeks. I use a lot of non-traditional TA alongside global macro and other relevant fundamental research to develop these charts; these factors more accurately predict the behaviors of markets than moon cycles and inverse butterflies.
Remember to trade responsibly, especially with this. Smaller lots than normal.
Note
forexlive.com/news/!/trump-us-uk-now-free-to-strike-trade-deal-after-brexit-20191213Forecasting the future is my specialty.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.