To analyze the probability of a trade setup based on your GBP/USD chart, I will break it down into key factors:
**Market Structure & Bias**
1. **Break of Structure (BOS):** Indicates a shift in market structure.
2. **Change of Character (CHOCH):** Points to potential reversals or liquidity grabs.
3. **Liquidity Zones:**
- **Equal Highs (EQH):** Liquidity pools above resistance areas.
- **Discount Zones:** Price is at a discounted level where institutional buying might occur.
4. **Premium vs. Discount:**
- The price is near **equilibrium** and in the **discount zone**, suggesting potential bullish movement.
**Trade Probability Assessment**
**Bullish Scenario**
- **Entry Zone:** The price is approaching the **discount zone** and previous support areas.
- **Confirmation:** If a bullish engulfing or market structure shift occurs, a buy setup is valid.
- **Probability:** **~65% Bullish** if price finds support in the discount zone and breaks short-term highs.
**Bearish Scenario**
- **Entry Zone:** If price breaks the current equilibrium and premium rejection holds.
- **Confirmation:** If a lower high forms under the premium zone and price sweeps previous lows.
- **Probability:** **~35% Bearish** unless a strong breakout invalidates bullish confirmation.
**Final Probability Estimate**
- **Bullish:** **65%** (Buy Setup)
- **Bearish:** **35%** (Sell Setup)
**Market Structure & Bias**
1. **Break of Structure (BOS):** Indicates a shift in market structure.
2. **Change of Character (CHOCH):** Points to potential reversals or liquidity grabs.
3. **Liquidity Zones:**
- **Equal Highs (EQH):** Liquidity pools above resistance areas.
- **Discount Zones:** Price is at a discounted level where institutional buying might occur.
4. **Premium vs. Discount:**
- The price is near **equilibrium** and in the **discount zone**, suggesting potential bullish movement.
**Trade Probability Assessment**
**Bullish Scenario**
- **Entry Zone:** The price is approaching the **discount zone** and previous support areas.
- **Confirmation:** If a bullish engulfing or market structure shift occurs, a buy setup is valid.
- **Probability:** **~65% Bullish** if price finds support in the discount zone and breaks short-term highs.
**Bearish Scenario**
- **Entry Zone:** If price breaks the current equilibrium and premium rejection holds.
- **Confirmation:** If a lower high forms under the premium zone and price sweeps previous lows.
- **Probability:** **~35% Bearish** unless a strong breakout invalidates bullish confirmation.
**Final Probability Estimate**
- **Bullish:** **65%** (Buy Setup)
- **Bearish:** **35%** (Sell Setup)
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.