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Recently, while the Swedish central bank reduced interest rates for the first time in eight years, the Bank of England decided to freeze interest rates. However, it's worth noting that the number of dissenting members advocating for rate cuts increased from one to two last month. Additionally, it's noteworthy that Governor Bailey stated after the monetary policy meeting that inflation is expected to fall to around 2% within the next two months, near the target level. However, considering his remarks that more evidence is needed for a rate cut, it's expected that a rate cut in June would be practically difficult. It can be predicted that the first rate cut will occur around the same time as the United States.
On May 10th, the UK's GDP for the first quarter was announced, surpassing expectations with a MoM growth of 0.4% and a YoY growth of 0.2%. On May 14th, Germany's April consumer price index, the US's April producer price index, and a speech by Fed Chair Powell are scheduled. On May 15th, the US's April consumer price index will be released. On May 16th, Japan's GDP for the first quarter will be announced. On May 17th, the April consumer price index will be released. GBPUSD has rebounded after reaching the lower trend line, as expected. However, it is struggling to break through the upper resistance. There is a possibility of retesting the low point once again. If it manages to hold the lower support and rise, there is a high possibility of breaking through the upper resistance and continuing to rise towards the 1.13100 line.
In summary, after a short-term decline to the 1.23500 line, a rebound is expected, followed by a medium to long-term rise towards the 1.13100 line.
If there are any unexpected movements, we will quickly adjust our strategy.
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.