GBPUSD Insight

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In his speech at the annual meeting of the National Association for Business Economics this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the pace of rate cuts would depend on data, and the dot plot suggests two 25 bp rate cuts within the year if the economy unfolds as expected. The market interpreted Powell's stance as hawkish, as he dismissed the possibility of a "big cut."

As the Eurozone's CPI falls below 2%, expectations for further rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) have strengthened, and ECB President Christine Lagarde hinted at the possibility of a rate cut at the monetary policy meeting in October.

Meanwhile, geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue, with Iran launching a large-scale ballistic missile attack on Israel. Israel, in response, has warned of retaliation against Iran, drawing more attention to the risks of a Middle Eastern conflict.

Key economic indicators to watch this week are:

- October 2: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (September)
- October 4: U.S. Unemployment Rate (September), Non-Farm Payroll Index (September)

GBPUSD broke through the resistance line at 1.32000 and rose to the 1.34000 line but then retreated to 1.32800 due to emerging issues. Given that this area is considered a support zone, a rebound may be expected; however, if it breaks through, there is a high possibility of further decline to the 1.31800 line. Nevertheless, the overall trend remains upward, making it crucial to identify the bottom. As mentioned earlier, the key support levels are likely around 1.32800 and 1.31800.

If unexpected movements occur, we will swiftly adjust our strategy.

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