So I've been tracking this idea for a couple of weeks.
I think based on fractal pattern theory, that this is about to start dropping out, and really fast?
Have a look at my previous GPBUSD idea, and you'll get an idea of what I've been thinking.
I might be wrong, but I post because I want to hear alternative ideas, so fire away.
As it stands, it looks like we need a big drop out/correction, and so have been holding a short position from 1.9557 as it's hard to truly predict when a drop out might happen.
I've highlighted key support areas with circles - I'll update my idea as it hits each one, but I would'nt be surprised it we eventually got down to 1.7000 range (pink circle).
I'd like to see a drop back to the green arrow/blue trend line, then we break further to the downside.
The chart to the top left is a BTC chart which I use as a template to track where in the uptrends/downtrends. If you look at my last idea, you'll get an idea of what I'm on about and why I think we are where we are.
We've got UK unemployment rate coming up Thursday + UK interest rates which could be the catalyst I'm looking for to the down side.
I think based on fractal pattern theory, that this is about to start dropping out, and really fast?
Have a look at my previous GPBUSD idea, and you'll get an idea of what I've been thinking.
I might be wrong, but I post because I want to hear alternative ideas, so fire away.
As it stands, it looks like we need a big drop out/correction, and so have been holding a short position from 1.9557 as it's hard to truly predict when a drop out might happen.
I've highlighted key support areas with circles - I'll update my idea as it hits each one, but I would'nt be surprised it we eventually got down to 1.7000 range (pink circle).
I'd like to see a drop back to the green arrow/blue trend line, then we break further to the downside.
The chart to the top left is a BTC chart which I use as a template to track where in the uptrends/downtrends. If you look at my last idea, you'll get an idea of what I'm on about and why I think we are where we are.
We've got UK unemployment rate coming up Thursday + UK interest rates which could be the catalyst I'm looking for to the down side.
Note
To give some more backing on my current idea, here is the GBPUSD chart on the 1m timeframe. My understanding is that we are at the GREEN ARROW - so we should fall out to the last major support which is anywhere in the pink circle in the main chart above.
Trade active
So we pumped a little higher and weren't where I thought we were. Here's the current idea on 5m chart.
I've included a couple of examples of similar looking patterns on different timeframes.
We're back down at the 1.30000 range, and I think another short term pump, some consolidation, and then start dropping out.
I've held on to my short position despite it being a total bag holding situation.
For NFP I'm going to hedge to catch some of the possible up movement.
Trade closed: target reached
So we cut through the green support line in image above, so my short term pump never happened and I closed the hedged position for a small loss and let it run down. We've now reached my target area and I've closed my short too.
Here's an updated chart of where I think we are currently at.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.