GBPUSD - Election Range
Updated
The average range for GU in an election week is 2.41% (roughly - records from the 70's are less reliable).
A short would need to aim at the 1.3 area as maximum first T1 - that consolidation pattern has made some strong resistance to get through.
In the expected weekly range, we are currently in no man's land, so nothing but a quick scalp would be worthwhile in this area.
If for some reason we dipped over the next few days a long banking on a Conservative victory around the 1.3 mark would be worthwhile.
More likely, we will grind higher into Thursday and there will be an opportunity to fade the pop. For now, I hope that is useful to see the framework I'm operating in for Cable this week.
You'll note the R4 Monthly Pivot high in our 2.41% expected range. R4 Pivots are interesting to look at - they are at extremes of range so two things often happen if the price reaches them - a) It normally mean reverts for the next few weeks as hitting R4 means the pairs usual range has been far exceeded. b) It often signals a proper breakout/ change in direction. The momentum required to push price this far means a lot of the big money has been involved. While I would trade the fade for now, if we hit R4 it is another sign that the bottom around 1.2 is going to be a major multi-year bottom.
A short would need to aim at the 1.3 area as maximum first T1 - that consolidation pattern has made some strong resistance to get through.
In the expected weekly range, we are currently in no man's land, so nothing but a quick scalp would be worthwhile in this area.
If for some reason we dipped over the next few days a long banking on a Conservative victory around the 1.3 mark would be worthwhile.
More likely, we will grind higher into Thursday and there will be an opportunity to fade the pop. For now, I hope that is useful to see the framework I'm operating in for Cable this week.
You'll note the R4 Monthly Pivot high in our 2.41% expected range. R4 Pivots are interesting to look at - they are at extremes of range so two things often happen if the price reaches them - a) It normally mean reverts for the next few weeks as hitting R4 means the pairs usual range has been far exceeded. b) It often signals a proper breakout/ change in direction. The momentum required to push price this far means a lot of the big money has been involved. While I would trade the fade for now, if we hit R4 it is another sign that the bottom around 1.2 is going to be a major multi-year bottom.
Order cancelled
The ranges are holding for now
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