Short

Updated

A possible strong downside move for gbpusd aiming for 1.25 level

Hi pros!

On the technical analysis side we got some lower highs and now it forms the first lower low (that could mean a trend reversal). price was contracting so I expect this move to be really strong (contraction , expansion).
We also got a confluence of resistance based on two trendlines and the 0.5-0.618 fib
The price rose very fast at a speed we don't seen yet and it's now slowing down in terms of energy.

On the fundamental analysis side, the frexit procedure just finished some days ago. Now UK is not submitted anymore to EU directives and they have their own path. I expect the frexit will weaken the Sterling for some months (the time to fall back on his feets) before an other wave up.
So before having a politics favorising the rise of sterling, in my opinion they should struggle economically some days

when I say Brexit may mean for UK to go to their own path , that doesn't mean they will close on their border and not keeping the exchange/commercial trade with other country (introverted), I think they will keep to be a nice commercial partner but now they won't use anymore the face of EU to trade. they just will discuss to other countries from their own and don't depend to an other organ. so the sterling should keep rising after this pullback in my opinion

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brexit sorry not frexit (not for the moment :p )

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trend analysis

Trade active

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hit break even (automatically took half when 1:2 was reached)

will find an other opportunity to short here

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now i know it's better to use trailing stop with 200 pips trailing because if I was using it during this trade I could have taken :

with exemple of 70 risk per trade : 70 when it reached 1:2 and 105 when it reached 1:3 because price would have jump on my trailing stop

good lesson

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so automatisation I was talking about 10 days ago ( automatical 1:2 take and trailing stop with same trailing as SL ) can be very usefull

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retook short based on confluence of resistance (an other time) : 0.786 fib + trendline pullback + sell zone

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really confused about the aggressive move , but I guess this have something to do with news.

Took the choice to stay with my plan.

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CLose the spx trade , I feel bad (profit of 5$)

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An other 1:2

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short spx and there is an other 1:2 on OIL

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took a short on EURGBP because of bear flag

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Some more 1:2 and we totally cover the drawdown.

I begin to relax, to take out my stress/anxiety to continue in a good way like we was every week for 2 month and half

that was a strong lesson and really difficult in term of anxiety. Got to see the conclusion of this to reduce the drawdown in those type of days and keep rising the account

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for the moment I realised that we never got a drawdown like this, we always was stagnating in rainy days and keep rising.

That drawdown was a nightmare but it's an obligation to pass unto this things to learn and conclude a lesson.

To say you all, I prefer largely have those types of drawdown in demo than with real account.

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the drawdown was equivalent to 10% of the winning capital so I was with 3500 and goes to 3200 but that's got an impact on me.

Because 10 days ago I was with 3800 (when I begun the month with 2800) so I was really happy, then the next day was erase most of my performance.

Now the account is at 3350$

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when I saw the 400-500-600$ losses (on a large time period of course), I was feeling really bad

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oil pullback to support -> add to long

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automatically took profit on EURUSD

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1:1

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reshort GBPUSD

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automatically took half on USDJPY (1:2)

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placed SL at 1% just before the news so half loss on GBP

near to cover the drawdown, hope it will be today

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slowly but surely

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automatically took the half resting 1:2 on the first trade of GBPUSD

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Short sterling again (confluence of resistance)

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sl to break even onGU

analysis here, sorry i don't wanted to surcharge the notifications

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took automatically an other 1:2 on GBPUSD

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reshort GBPUSD

image.noelshack.com/fichiers/2017/35/2/1503964157-philippotgon.jpg

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sorry

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take half of half on USDJPY (1:3.8)

AB : 3558$

we finally cover the drawdown! ouuuf!

let's make profit now

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automatically took half on USDCAD (1:2)

AB : 3558 + 65 = 3623$

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took half of half of hald on usdjpy

AB : 3623 + 34 = 3657$

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took half of half of half on USOIL ( 1:3.5)

AB : 3657 + 57 = 3714$

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took half of half on first GBPUSD trade

AB : 3714 + 49 = 3763$

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hit sl on SPX, we will cover it soon I think

AB = 3698$

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Took automatically the rest on USOIL trade (1:2.8)

AB : 3698 + 45 = 3743$

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Retry short on SPX (breaking one rule exceptionally)

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took automatically the rest of second oil trade

AB : 3743 + 39 = 3782$

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took half of the resting profit on USDJPY (1:5)

AB : 3782 + 20 =3802$

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Took automatically profit with gold (retrail stop) : 1:0.45 = 26

AB : 3802 + 26 = 3828$

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I put a long on gold because it pullback and reject the support really strongly

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oil*

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took automatically the rest of profit on USDCAD (again retrail stop) : 1:1.2 = 39

AB = 3828 + 39 = 3867$

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took half automatically on GBPUSD (2 position method): 1:2 -> + 65

AB : 3867 + 65 = 3932$

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I think it's time to terminate the day in beauty. don't want to blow my performance again.

that was a very good day with enormous performance already

I stop here

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loss on SPX , compensate by taking half on USDJPY : -65 , +29

AB : 3932 - 36 = 3896$

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Take the rest of usdjpy and short it because it completed this ABCD pattern, I think it will retest the support

AB : 3896 + 29 = 3925$

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Sl to break even to protect the capital (usdjpy)

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take half of half on the first GBPUSD trade (1:4 reached) : +65

AB : 3925 + 65 = 3990$

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keep adding short on GBPUSD (inside bar below resistance)
and take the rest of first gbpusd trade

AB : 3990 + 65 = 4055$

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take half of the resting profit of first gbpusd trade

AB : 4055 + 27 = 4082$

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sl hit on USDCAD with 1% risk reward : -32

AB : 4082 - 32 = 4050$

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take half on usoil trade by anticipitation ( maybe i'm not patient but I don't want to be greed)

AB : 4050 + 46 = 4096$

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on usoil

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automatically took profit on the two trade of gbpusd(retrail stop) : 50

AB : 4096 + 50 = 4146$

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Eurusd broke the descending channel, good moment to go long

sl hit on gold -> AB : 4146 - 65 = 4081$

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eurusd sl hit : -65
compensate by taking half of half on USOIL: +38

AB : 4081 - 27 = 4055$

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added to long on USOIL based on gap up filled and pullback to support

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took automatically 1:2 on GBPUSD

AB : 4120 + 65 = 4185$

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add to short on GBPUSD

inside bar breakdown and below resistance

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hit retrail stop on GBPUSD and USOIL : +161
hit stop on USDCAD - 65 and Gold -65
took half automatically at 1:2 on SPX : +65 and took half of half when reached 1:4 +65

AB: 4185 + 161 = 4346$

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BEAUTIFUL spx

now want to add on pullback to the H&S

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took the rest because hit retrail stop on SPX: + 83

AB : 4429$

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H&S pullback shorted

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SL hit on spx : -65

AB : 4364$

short gbpusd because it brokes new low and pullback to resistance

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retry short on SPX

that's all for today , don't want to overtrade/greedy/erase performance

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retrail stop hit on spx : -20

AB : 4344$

short euro sterling

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ab Still the same, all the loss was covered by SPX took half automatically and hit retrail stop (USDCAD/GBPUSD)

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jeanneymar011001

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jeanneymar011001