Hello everyone.
I want share my idea about GBPUSD.
The U.S.-China trade deal breakthrough has fueled USD strength, pressuring GBP/USD after a surge to 1.3330. BoE’s dovish stance, with a potential 25 bps rate cut priced in, contrasts with a hawkish Fed, favoring USD. Upcoming UK CPI and U.S. CPI data this week could drive volatility—soft UK inflation may weaken GBP, while high U.S. inflation could bolster USD further. UK wage growth (5.9%) offers GBP support, but weak PMI and employer sentiment cap gains. Watch U.S.-UK trade deal news for potential GBP upside.
With technical we can see last week we had some consolidation and this week started with high volatility and brake support. at the moment price testing resistance + 4h FVG.
Scenario 1 (Bearish – Primary View): Price rejects the 1.3200–1.3275 FVG/resistance zone and resumes its downtrend, targeting the next major support at 1.3000—a psychological and structural level. This aligns with USD strength from the trade deal and BoE’s dovish stance . Trade Setup: Short below 1.3200, target 1.3000, stop above 1.3300 (above FVG).
Scenario 2 (Bullish – Less Likely): Buyers break above the FVG (1.3275) and 1.3300, targeting 1.3350–1.3400. This would require a catalyst like soft U.S. CPI data weakening USD, but current fundamentals favor bears.
Trade Setup:
Entry below - 1.3190 (current price 1.32048) ensures confirmation of rejection.
Stop above - 1.3280 (above FVG) protects against a bullish breakout.
Target - I will follow trend with trail stop.
For collaboration text me private!
Always make your own research!!!
I want share my idea about GBPUSD.
The U.S.-China trade deal breakthrough has fueled USD strength, pressuring GBP/USD after a surge to 1.3330. BoE’s dovish stance, with a potential 25 bps rate cut priced in, contrasts with a hawkish Fed, favoring USD. Upcoming UK CPI and U.S. CPI data this week could drive volatility—soft UK inflation may weaken GBP, while high U.S. inflation could bolster USD further. UK wage growth (5.9%) offers GBP support, but weak PMI and employer sentiment cap gains. Watch U.S.-UK trade deal news for potential GBP upside.
With technical we can see last week we had some consolidation and this week started with high volatility and brake support. at the moment price testing resistance + 4h FVG.
Scenario 1 (Bearish – Primary View): Price rejects the 1.3200–1.3275 FVG/resistance zone and resumes its downtrend, targeting the next major support at 1.3000—a psychological and structural level. This aligns with USD strength from the trade deal and BoE’s dovish stance . Trade Setup: Short below 1.3200, target 1.3000, stop above 1.3300 (above FVG).
Scenario 2 (Bullish – Less Likely): Buyers break above the FVG (1.3275) and 1.3300, targeting 1.3350–1.3400. This would require a catalyst like soft U.S. CPI data weakening USD, but current fundamentals favor bears.
Trade Setup:
Entry below - 1.3190 (current price 1.32048) ensures confirmation of rejection.
Stop above - 1.3280 (above FVG) protects against a bullish breakout.
Target - I will follow trend with trail stop.
For collaboration text me private!
Always make your own research!!!
Trade closed: stop reached
I was wrong in this trade scene 2 worked.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.