News background and trading ideas for 22/01/2019
Since yesterday was a day-off in the USA, news background, in general, was boring.
Among significant, it’s worth noting an absence of progress in negotiations process between the US and China, what is amid another economic failure of China (referred to GDP for the fourth quarter, which growth rate became the lowest since 2009) depressed markets. The IMF decided to finish off the markets, which again decreased their forecasts for the growth rate of the world economy. This time, the forecast has been downgraded from 3.7% to 3.5%.
Although we never actually got the full-fledged sell-offs. So, we continue to believe so far, that this week preference should be given to sales of safe-haven assets (first of all we mean sales of gold and Japanese yen).
We continue to follow the news from Brexit fields. Yesterday PM Theresa May presented her Brexit’s plan B, which is almost the same as plan A. Nevertheless, May believes that it can be voted on 29 of January and make it within a formal deadline (within a 2 month before data exit from EU). Besides, yesterday May declined requests by pro-European lawmakers to postpone the exit from the EU or hold a second referendum. Such news cannot be called super-positive, but in two years we have become accustomed to this.
Oil after the breakdown of 53.50 gets confused on some way. And the fact of the breakdown itself looks quite doubtful. The reason for it was the information about the decrease in production by OPEC countries, as well as a sharp decline in the number of active drilling rigs in the US (their number decreased by 21, which is very meaningful). Considering the current price dynamics and the fundamental background, we still refrain from recommendations to sell oil within a day (you need to wait for a confident return below 53.50), although the recommendation to sell in the mid-term remains relevant.
What can we expect from today? For instance, news from Davos, where the world economic forum takes place. Although this year it risks passing without the participation of major players: the US President Donald Trump, Prime Minister Theresa May and French President Emmanuel Macron. Everyone has their own reason: shutdown, Brexit and the yellow vests accordingly.
In terms of statistics, our attention should first be paid to data on the UK labor market today.
As for our trading recommendations for today, we’re selling gold and Japanese yen intraday as well as the Russian ruble at all investment horizons, buying the pound in the mid-term, and also hold a mid-term position on the sale of oil.
Among significant, it’s worth noting an absence of progress in negotiations process between the US and China, what is amid another economic failure of China (referred to GDP for the fourth quarter, which growth rate became the lowest since 2009) depressed markets. The IMF decided to finish off the markets, which again decreased their forecasts for the growth rate of the world economy. This time, the forecast has been downgraded from 3.7% to 3.5%.
Although we never actually got the full-fledged sell-offs. So, we continue to believe so far, that this week preference should be given to sales of safe-haven assets (first of all we mean sales of gold and Japanese yen).
We continue to follow the news from Brexit fields. Yesterday PM Theresa May presented her Brexit’s plan B, which is almost the same as plan A. Nevertheless, May believes that it can be voted on 29 of January and make it within a formal deadline (within a 2 month before data exit from EU). Besides, yesterday May declined requests by pro-European lawmakers to postpone the exit from the EU or hold a second referendum. Such news cannot be called super-positive, but in two years we have become accustomed to this.
Oil after the breakdown of 53.50 gets confused on some way. And the fact of the breakdown itself looks quite doubtful. The reason for it was the information about the decrease in production by OPEC countries, as well as a sharp decline in the number of active drilling rigs in the US (their number decreased by 21, which is very meaningful). Considering the current price dynamics and the fundamental background, we still refrain from recommendations to sell oil within a day (you need to wait for a confident return below 53.50), although the recommendation to sell in the mid-term remains relevant.
What can we expect from today? For instance, news from Davos, where the world economic forum takes place. Although this year it risks passing without the participation of major players: the US President Donald Trump, Prime Minister Theresa May and French President Emmanuel Macron. Everyone has their own reason: shutdown, Brexit and the yellow vests accordingly.
In terms of statistics, our attention should first be paid to data on the UK labor market today.
As for our trading recommendations for today, we’re selling gold and Japanese yen intraday as well as the Russian ruble at all investment horizons, buying the pound in the mid-term, and also hold a mid-term position on the sale of oil.
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