From Downing Street with Love
Updated
Here we go again guys you know what to do....same plays from the loading zone...by now I hope most are locked and loaded in full positions.
Unfortunately we have more Brexit politics in play with PM May sending a letter to the EU council asking for an extension this morning.
From good sources the EU will accept on the assumption May can get her deal through Parliament by mid-April, otherwise, we are left with a choice between a long extension into 2020 or a no-deal. It is fair to say any extension seems more or less priced in at this point so not expecting much after the knee-jerk on the headline.
Expecting the Fed to lower the “dots” signalling one hike in 2019 … a “one and done” approach. June seems unlikely now as the Fed has started to focus on inflation to keep equity markets happy.
My base case is for a hike in December meaning the dollar looks underpriced at current levels and with a lingering ECB easing risk premium EURUSD will start the leg lower after we clear Fed and PMIs.
Unfortunately we have more Brexit politics in play with PM May sending a letter to the EU council asking for an extension this morning.
From good sources the EU will accept on the assumption May can get her deal through Parliament by mid-April, otherwise, we are left with a choice between a long extension into 2020 or a no-deal. It is fair to say any extension seems more or less priced in at this point so not expecting much after the knee-jerk on the headline.
Expecting the Fed to lower the “dots” signalling one hike in 2019 … a “one and done” approach. June seems unlikely now as the Fed has started to focus on inflation to keep equity markets happy.
My base case is for a hike in December meaning the dollar looks underpriced at current levels and with a lingering ECB easing risk premium EURUSD will start the leg lower after we clear Fed and PMIs.
Note
The technical setup has been damaged, if US PMIs are inline today we might see a very nasty end to the week.Trade closed: target reached
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