The inflation trade
Prices are going up in spite of the "safe haven" usd ponzi scheme going up (short term like 12 months ago?).
It has even started going to what people notice & care about: consumer goods, end products.
They can be in denial until they feel it at the store, because even a 5 year old would understand that.
Fast foods have already increased their prices significantly.
We will soon hear people say "if you told me [...] 5 years ago I would have called you crazy", I know, they called me crazy for years now.
"Take your meds". Let's see who gets last laugh.
RE, stock, crypto prices have already gone up. More a bubble than inflation. Debatable. The ones responsible act dumb and are in denial. The only negative consequences directly noticeable were populism & antifa riots.
The world has entered the second stage: increase in prices of usable commodities. And now it's going to start hurting.[\b]
It has completely skyrocketed, so violently, the price doubled, but here it is not the sign of a great industry
Food prices have also gotten very stupid very fast
Other prices to look at are these:
It is harder to find this data.
Here on a british site we can see that their pharmaceutical prices were in a range since 2000 and broke out violently recently
ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/cjya/mm23
Often the sources for prices will be the FED... Asking a suspect if he is innocent...
I don't run a big fund with a big research department with hundreds of analysts I can't check everything, but what I can do is look at China where lots of these goods come from, electronics etc.
Last year chinese economists and officials were publicly showing their worry of their usd bags, they build their country around exporting and on the way accumulated a lot of IOU, some of their work has not really been paid for yet, they got some worthless pieces of paper that lose value over time, they don't mind as long as they are confident these worthless pieces of paper will become something useful one day, they understand the difference between some number and purchasing power unlike most of the population lmao that get excited at the word "1 million".
First last year there was some huge news no one heard about that China build their own monetary zone in east asia, you know, what Gaddafi did just before France & their bodyguard the US decided the north african country needed some democracy.
China has started lowering its USD exposure, without hiding it, anyone could make money on this trend, the trend has lasted so long even Warren Buffett is watching now I bet.
siliconexpert.com/blog/semiconductor-manufacturers-raise-prices-indicated-product-line-price-increases/
The producer price index for all commodities will be at a new ath soon, it went way up during the inflation & growth period then stagnated at the top since the recession:
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PPIACO
Producer Price Index by Commodity: Inputs to Industries: Net Inputs to Mining and Oil and Gas Field Machinery Manufacturing Industry, Mining and Oil and Gas Field Machinery Manufacturing, Excluding Capital Investment, Labor, and Imports
Big breakout!
A big export of the US is refined Oil, prices of Oil go up AS well as machinery ===> Their output will go down, I'm not sure if democrats want to lower it to "save the planet" (making their situation worse) or just let it lower by itself (which they obviously know is happening) then take credit for it?
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPUIP333130
Net Inputs to Residential Construction, Goods
ALL. TIME. HIGHS. Since 2020 it has mooned. This is very bad! They already have a crisis here.
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPUIP2311001
Net Inputs to Commercial and Healthcare Structures, Goods
Another all time high. More old obese people and ever higher costs to build hospitals & other infra
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPUIP2312101
I'd rather make a video of this seriously, idk if tradingview has this yet.
The services index was at 100 Jan 2015- Jan 2017, 110 Q2 2020, and now at 127. Started going VERTICAL.
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPUIP2312202
I think we have seen enough.
I will now attempt a drawing, german stonks
Jan-July 1918: 1 gold mark = 1.25 Reichs mark
9 November 1918: Wilhelm II abdication, start of Weimar republic. Socialists quickly start being the ones in charge. Always ends well.
December 1918: 1 gold mark = 2.00 Reichs mark
December 1919: 1 gold mark = 9.61 Reichs mark
December 1920: 1 gold mark = 14.53 Reichs mark
...
November 1922: 1 gold mark = 1282 Reichs mark
Late 1922: France socialists & Belgium occupy the Ruhr (west industrial region) to make Germany pay in goods (genius idea btw)
November 1923: 1 gold mark = 115,000,000,000 Reichs mark
The chart they never showed you
A loaf of bread in Berlin that cost around 160 Marks at the end of 1922 cost 200,000,000,000 Marks by late 1923.
This is when the public started really caring. It all develops over several years, it really started picking up in 1919.
I do not know what bread prices were and what industrial goods prices were, it's a bit different here too.
In the US case, where it has just began skyrocketing up, consumer goods follow a bit after "industrial" goods go up.
It escalates over years, it's really not a sprint there is plenty of time to prepare.
It's clearly not a race against the public that needs more time to understand, their understanding is not a function of time, but a function of when their shopping cart price goes up. We are very early. You can store toilet paper etc (for your own use don't be stupid don't try to profit from it by selling stuff at a discount when prices soar the peasants will come at you with torches, maybe, idk how their illogical emotional brains work) without the slightest competition as the herd isn't intelligent enough to figure this out, once they do though they'll all rambo like rhinoceroses.
When it gets really bad it will accelerate like crazy like germany hyperinflation in 1923. Maybe China says enough is enough or idk whatever.
Maybe industrials just cannot continue and all manufacturing stops. Like oil businesses chain failures a few years ago.
And these industrials are mega overleveraged lol.
Funny how during these terrible times in Germany the social-democrats had the majority, and now in the US who has the majority?
It's always the same guys 😂
Maybe that's just how every society naturally evolves? Late stage democracy or something. Good times make weak men. Weak men create hard times.
Checking these "Producer Price Index by Commodity: Inputs to Industries" is like having a crystal ball because the impact comes later and the unwashed plebes have no clue until it happens.
Some potential investment choices, not an advisor, just throwing out a few ideas:
> Stocking up on consumer goods now before prices go up is actually a smart investment decision, you will save money.
> Experienced speculators can buy some far away long Oil contract, other commodities too even. Oil could be going 3 digits personal opinion.
> Experienced traders just be focussed don't rest, LF commodity longs, LF usd short when the time is right, LF irrational prices, LF contango...
> Noobs don't go learn to trade now and get slapped by increased volatility and having no idea what you're doing
> Bond buyers just send me your money directly if you don't want it I'll make better use
> House prices will surely go up but socialists probably will take their fair share and give your RE to some hobo so sucks
> Don't show your wealth when things get really bad, but why would you waste money you could invest?
> Wageslaves will get crushed in the medium term, for those that spend all they earn and have nothing to spare press f, don't over-rely on a salary
> Might as well leave the west in the next 5 years
> Credit default swaps on the federal government?
It has even started going to what people notice & care about: consumer goods, end products.
They can be in denial until they feel it at the store, because even a 5 year old would understand that.
Fast foods have already increased their prices significantly.
We will soon hear people say "if you told me [...] 5 years ago I would have called you crazy", I know, they called me crazy for years now.
"Take your meds". Let's see who gets last laugh.
RE, stock, crypto prices have already gone up. More a bubble than inflation. Debatable. The ones responsible act dumb and are in denial. The only negative consequences directly noticeable were populism & antifa riots.
The world has entered the second stage: increase in prices of usable commodities. And now it's going to start hurting.[\b]
It has completely skyrocketed, so violently, the price doubled, but here it is not the sign of a great industry
Food prices have also gotten very stupid very fast
Other prices to look at are these:
It is harder to find this data.
Here on a british site we can see that their pharmaceutical prices were in a range since 2000 and broke out violently recently
ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/cjya/mm23
Often the sources for prices will be the FED... Asking a suspect if he is innocent...
I don't run a big fund with a big research department with hundreds of analysts I can't check everything, but what I can do is look at China where lots of these goods come from, electronics etc.
Last year chinese economists and officials were publicly showing their worry of their usd bags, they build their country around exporting and on the way accumulated a lot of IOU, some of their work has not really been paid for yet, they got some worthless pieces of paper that lose value over time, they don't mind as long as they are confident these worthless pieces of paper will become something useful one day, they understand the difference between some number and purchasing power unlike most of the population lmao that get excited at the word "1 million".
First last year there was some huge news no one heard about that China build their own monetary zone in east asia, you know, what Gaddafi did just before France & their bodyguard the US decided the north african country needed some democracy.
China has started lowering its USD exposure, without hiding it, anyone could make money on this trend, the trend has lasted so long even Warren Buffett is watching now I bet.
siliconexpert.com/blog/semiconductor-manufacturers-raise-prices-indicated-product-line-price-increases/
The producer price index for all commodities will be at a new ath soon, it went way up during the inflation & growth period then stagnated at the top since the recession:
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PPIACO
Producer Price Index by Commodity: Inputs to Industries: Net Inputs to Mining and Oil and Gas Field Machinery Manufacturing Industry, Mining and Oil and Gas Field Machinery Manufacturing, Excluding Capital Investment, Labor, and Imports
Big breakout!
A big export of the US is refined Oil, prices of Oil go up AS well as machinery ===> Their output will go down, I'm not sure if democrats want to lower it to "save the planet" (making their situation worse) or just let it lower by itself (which they obviously know is happening) then take credit for it?
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPUIP333130
Net Inputs to Residential Construction, Goods
ALL. TIME. HIGHS. Since 2020 it has mooned. This is very bad! They already have a crisis here.
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPUIP2311001
Net Inputs to Commercial and Healthcare Structures, Goods
Another all time high. More old obese people and ever higher costs to build hospitals & other infra
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPUIP2312101
I'd rather make a video of this seriously, idk if tradingview has this yet.
The services index was at 100 Jan 2015- Jan 2017, 110 Q2 2020, and now at 127. Started going VERTICAL.
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPUIP2312202
I think we have seen enough.
I will now attempt a drawing, german stonks
Jan-July 1918: 1 gold mark = 1.25 Reichs mark
9 November 1918: Wilhelm II abdication, start of Weimar republic. Socialists quickly start being the ones in charge. Always ends well.
December 1918: 1 gold mark = 2.00 Reichs mark
December 1919: 1 gold mark = 9.61 Reichs mark
December 1920: 1 gold mark = 14.53 Reichs mark
...
November 1922: 1 gold mark = 1282 Reichs mark
Late 1922: France socialists & Belgium occupy the Ruhr (west industrial region) to make Germany pay in goods (genius idea btw)
November 1923: 1 gold mark = 115,000,000,000 Reichs mark
The chart they never showed you
A loaf of bread in Berlin that cost around 160 Marks at the end of 1922 cost 200,000,000,000 Marks by late 1923.
This is when the public started really caring. It all develops over several years, it really started picking up in 1919.
I do not know what bread prices were and what industrial goods prices were, it's a bit different here too.
In the US case, where it has just began skyrocketing up, consumer goods follow a bit after "industrial" goods go up.
It escalates over years, it's really not a sprint there is plenty of time to prepare.
It's clearly not a race against the public that needs more time to understand, their understanding is not a function of time, but a function of when their shopping cart price goes up. We are very early. You can store toilet paper etc (for your own use don't be stupid don't try to profit from it by selling stuff at a discount when prices soar the peasants will come at you with torches, maybe, idk how their illogical emotional brains work) without the slightest competition as the herd isn't intelligent enough to figure this out, once they do though they'll all rambo like rhinoceroses.
When it gets really bad it will accelerate like crazy like germany hyperinflation in 1923. Maybe China says enough is enough or idk whatever.
Maybe industrials just cannot continue and all manufacturing stops. Like oil businesses chain failures a few years ago.
And these industrials are mega overleveraged lol.
Funny how during these terrible times in Germany the social-democrats had the majority, and now in the US who has the majority?
It's always the same guys 😂
Maybe that's just how every society naturally evolves? Late stage democracy or something. Good times make weak men. Weak men create hard times.
Checking these "Producer Price Index by Commodity: Inputs to Industries" is like having a crystal ball because the impact comes later and the unwashed plebes have no clue until it happens.
Some potential investment choices, not an advisor, just throwing out a few ideas:
> Stocking up on consumer goods now before prices go up is actually a smart investment decision, you will save money.
> Experienced speculators can buy some far away long Oil contract, other commodities too even. Oil could be going 3 digits personal opinion.
> Experienced traders just be focussed don't rest, LF commodity longs, LF usd short when the time is right, LF irrational prices, LF contango...
> Noobs don't go learn to trade now and get slapped by increased volatility and having no idea what you're doing
> Bond buyers just send me your money directly if you don't want it I'll make better use
> House prices will surely go up but socialists probably will take their fair share and give your RE to some hobo so sucks
> Don't show your wealth when things get really bad, but why would you waste money you could invest?
> Wageslaves will get crushed in the medium term, for those that spend all they earn and have nothing to spare press f, don't over-rely on a salary
> Might as well leave the west in the next 5 years
> Credit default swaps on the federal government?
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