1. Price Action Analysis (4H & 1H Timeframes)
Market Structure & Trend
The 4H chart shows a clear uptrend from mid-February, but recent price action indicates rejection from the highs (~1.2700) and a retracement towards lower levels.
The 1H chart reveals a series of lower highs and lower lows, confirming short-term bearish momentum.
The price is currently sitting around 1.2575, showing a weak attempt at recovery.
Key Levels & Patterns
Resistance:
1.2700 - 1.2720 → Recent swing high, strong supply area.
1.2650 - 1.2660 → Prior support now acting as resistance after a breakdown.
Support:
1.2550 - 1.2560 → Current price area, possible demand zone.
1.2500 - 1.2510 → Strong psychological level, previous reaction point.
Patterns Observed:
Breakdown from recent support (1.2650) → Retest of this level could provide short opportunities.
Bearish rejection at highs → Suggests sellers are in control.
2. Breakout & Retest Analysis
The price recently broke below 1.2650 and has not reclaimed that level, signaling potential continuation downward.
1.2580 - 1.2600 zone is acting as temporary support, but weak bullish momentum suggests a possible break lower.
3. Potential Trading Setup
📉 Short Setup (Sell Opportunity)
Entry: 1.2600 - 1.2620 (If price retests broken support and rejects)
Stop-Loss: 1.2670 (+50-70 pips, above recent structure)
Take-Profit Targets:
TP1: 1.2550 (Partial profit, +50 pips)
TP2: 1.2500 (Key support, +100 pips)
TP3: 1.2450 (Final target, +150 pips)
Risk-to-Reward Ratio: At least 1:2 (Better if entering at 1.2620)
Alternative Bullish Setup (If Price Reclaims 1.2650)
If price breaks above 1.2650 and holds, it could invalidate the bearish setup and lead to a push towards 1.2700+.
4. Upcoming Market Events to Watch
US Economic Data (NFP, CPI, or FOMC Speech) → Could drive USD volatility.
UK Economic Announcements (BoE Statements, Inflation Data) → Impact GBP strength.
Dollar Index (DXY) Movements → If DXY strengthens, GBP/USD could drop further.
Final Thoughts
Bearish Bias unless price breaks above 1.2650.
Watch for 1.2580 breakdown for additional selling confirmation.
Only consider longs above 1.2650 with strong bullish confirmation.
Market Structure & Trend
The 4H chart shows a clear uptrend from mid-February, but recent price action indicates rejection from the highs (~1.2700) and a retracement towards lower levels.
The 1H chart reveals a series of lower highs and lower lows, confirming short-term bearish momentum.
The price is currently sitting around 1.2575, showing a weak attempt at recovery.
Key Levels & Patterns
Resistance:
1.2700 - 1.2720 → Recent swing high, strong supply area.
1.2650 - 1.2660 → Prior support now acting as resistance after a breakdown.
Support:
1.2550 - 1.2560 → Current price area, possible demand zone.
1.2500 - 1.2510 → Strong psychological level, previous reaction point.
Patterns Observed:
Breakdown from recent support (1.2650) → Retest of this level could provide short opportunities.
Bearish rejection at highs → Suggests sellers are in control.
2. Breakout & Retest Analysis
The price recently broke below 1.2650 and has not reclaimed that level, signaling potential continuation downward.
1.2580 - 1.2600 zone is acting as temporary support, but weak bullish momentum suggests a possible break lower.
3. Potential Trading Setup
📉 Short Setup (Sell Opportunity)
Entry: 1.2600 - 1.2620 (If price retests broken support and rejects)
Stop-Loss: 1.2670 (+50-70 pips, above recent structure)
Take-Profit Targets:
TP1: 1.2550 (Partial profit, +50 pips)
TP2: 1.2500 (Key support, +100 pips)
TP3: 1.2450 (Final target, +150 pips)
Risk-to-Reward Ratio: At least 1:2 (Better if entering at 1.2620)
Alternative Bullish Setup (If Price Reclaims 1.2650)
If price breaks above 1.2650 and holds, it could invalidate the bearish setup and lead to a push towards 1.2700+.
4. Upcoming Market Events to Watch
US Economic Data (NFP, CPI, or FOMC Speech) → Could drive USD volatility.
UK Economic Announcements (BoE Statements, Inflation Data) → Impact GBP strength.
Dollar Index (DXY) Movements → If DXY strengthens, GBP/USD could drop further.
Final Thoughts
Bearish Bias unless price breaks above 1.2650.
Watch for 1.2580 breakdown for additional selling confirmation.
Only consider longs above 1.2650 with strong bullish confirmation.
Trade closed manually
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.