(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Though under pressure, support at 1.1904/1.2235 remains in motion in May. A violation of this area, nevertheless, puts forward a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.1297. Neighbouring resistance, should we see an attempt at recovery, can be found in the form of a trendline (1.7191).
Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
A few pips south of supply at 1.2649/1.2799 (prior demand), a double-top pattern formed at 1.2647, with last Wednesday consuming the neckline (April 21 1.2247) and establishing a potential take-profit target (purple) around 1.1855.
As of late, we have seen the British pound claw back some losses vs. the greenback, derailing downside attempts. However, traders, particularly pattern traders, will note the neckline at 1.2247 holds firm, with yesterday producing a half-hearted shooting star candlestick pattern.
H4 timeframe:
Wednesday finished somewhat neutral, but not before taking price outside of channel resistance (1.2642) and retesting the base as support.
Additional supply is seen to the left of price around 1.2280 (lower arrow), but this base may simply be a reaction off the upper zone at 1.2324 (upper arrow).
The violation of the noted channel resistance, therefore, shines the headlights on supply from 1.2477/1.2438.
H1 timeframe:
Since connecting with supply at 1.2282/1.2222 on Tuesday, the H1 candles have been entrenched within a range between the noted supply and local support derived from 1.2223.
External support/resistance is found at 1.22/23, with support intersecting with the 100-period simple moving average at 1.2201.
Structures of Interest:
In a nutshell we have the following to work with:
Monthly price holds 1.1904/1.2235, though this area is positioned against the major trend.
Buyers and sellers butt heads around the underside of the daily double top neckline at 1.2247.
H4 price is seen retesting channel resistance-turned support from 1.2642.
H1 action is rangebound between supply at 1.2282/1.2222 and support from 1.2223.
Taking the above into account, H4 buyers may find a footing today, boosted by monthly price and also H1 action bottoming just ahead of 1.2223. On the other hand, daily sellers remain at the underside of the daily double top neckline from 1.2247 and could still attempt to reach its take-profit target at 1.1855.
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